US Dollar Rebounded Strongly &Nbsp; Commodities Fell Back.

11 days, measure

Oil prices in New York and London dropped by more than 5 U.S. dollars. At the close of that day, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in June at a price of $98.21 a barrel, or 5.46%, while the June London crude oil futures in the London market closed at $112.57, or 4.30%, in the Brent market.

International Spot silver on that day

Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank, told reporters that "the possibility of increasing interest rates in the euro zone and the recent accelerated fermentation of the European debt crisis have hit the euro and pushed up the US dollar index".

The statement made by the European Central Bank President Tyse on 11 may suggest that the euro zone is unlikely to raise interest rates next month, which will reduce the possibility of widening the spread between the euro and the US dollar.

Meanwhile, S & P said it may continue to reduce Portugal's sovereign debt credit rating, and its speculation on whether Greece will get more help also swayed risk appetite, and European debt risk pushed down the euro.

Reuters reported that the international oil price slump was also affected by the US crude oil inventory report, which also boosted the US dollar's rise.

The US Energy Intelligence Agency data showed that in the week ending May 6th, US crude oil inventories rose sharply for third consecutive weeks, higher than market expectations. Gasoline inventories also increased for the first time in 12 weeks, and gasoline demand in the United States decreased for seventh consecutive weeks, with a reduction of seven Zhou Xingao.

This caused us gasoline futures to drop sharply and sharply lower international crude oil prices.

Reuters reported that the sharp drop in energy prices was passed to the stock market, and investors scrambled to sell assets closely related to global economic growth.

Zhao Qingming believes that the rebound in the US dollar index is also largely due to the need for technological adjustment. "The US dollar touched a low of 72 at the early stage, and there was a rebound in technology demand, and some other currencies represented by the Aussie dollar also showed a demand for callbacks after the surge."

SMBCNikkoSecurities, a strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui bank, Japan, pointed out that in view of the mild recovery of the global economy, investors have been carrying out the US dollar interest rate trading and yen spread trading, and now those funds are coming back.

Market analysts at Commonwealth ForeignExchange say that the main drivers of future exchange rates remain the interest rate policy differences between the US and the eurozone and the debt situation of the second tier countries in the euro zone.

Wen Bin, senior analyst at Bank of China International Financial Research Institute, said that the probability of raising interest rates in the second half of the year is small, and the US dollar will not change the basic trend of long-term weakness.

He said that the latest unemployment rate in the United States remains high, while the core inflation rate has risen, but it has not yet reached the core inflation rate set by the Federal Reserve. "Therefore, the mainstream view of the Federal Reserve to maintain monetary policy stability should remain unchanged, and the probability of raising interest rates in the second half of this year is very small."

Kocherlakota, chairman of the minnesapolis Federal Reserve, and Pienaar Tor, chairman of the Cleveland fed, issued a call on the 11 day to raise interest rates before the end of 2011.

But Fed officials say the Fed needs to see more months of job growth before abandoning its promise to maintain low interest rates.

Data released by the US Department of labor on 12 may show that wholesale prices rose by 0.8% in April, a tenth consecutive month of gains, showing the rising trend of us prices since last summer.

The Reuters poll shows that most analysts have raised the forecast for inflation this year, but still believe that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year.

Futures traders also predict that the Fed will not raise interest rates this year. The short-term US interest rate futures contract shows that the rate of increase in March 2012 is 44%, and the rate of increase in April is 63%.

Wen bin also said that after the QE2 (second round of quantitative easing) ended, although no QE3 continued to "pour water into the pool", it would maintain the current loose liquidity through regular market operations, which also made the US dollar strong without support.

From the paction data, the bet on the US dollar is still very large.

The latest figures released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculative dollar net short to $35 billion rose to a two month high in the week ending May 3rd.

But Zhao Qingming told reporters, "although the US dollar index is only a staged rebound, there is still room for growth, and the possibility of reaching 78 is very large."