Steel Prices Entered A Sensitive Period Of "Game"

Like most of the iron and steel industry, as a senior steelmaker in Central China, Lao Wang feels that the recent market is beginning to show signs of nervousness.

On the one hand, with the end of the peak season for steel sales and the decrease of downstream demand, the contradiction between supply exceeding demand for steel production has been increasingly highlighted. Recently, some steel mills have been impeded delivery of steel products, and on the other hand, with the further tightening of the central bank, monetary policy The downstream demand is reduced, plus coking coal, iron ore and so on. Raw material cost High prices, so that most of the steel chain of funds began to appear tight.

"At present, it is a delicate period of price game. Although the downstream is bearish, the steel plant is still" stiff ". Lao Wang told the economic reference daily. He admits that everyone knows the principle of "small profits but quick turnover", but for steel mills, the current profit per ton steel is less than 100 yuan, which has basically reached the critical point of cost. Price drop The tension of the capital chain will be more serious, and the steel plant will be more embarrassed.

In June steel prices released by major steel mills were basically flat plates, and even some steel mills had a slight increase of 20 to 30 yuan. However, many steel workers interviewed by reporters said that compared with before, steel sales were very cold. Although the price of steel under the steel factory did not fall sharply, the enthusiasm of buyers was not high.

It is not only steel traders who are worried about the market outlook, including most of the steel mills in China. Authoritative sources told the economic reference daily that some steel mills have recently adopted the way of limiting the price of mining to prevent the risk of the fall.

Affected by this factor, the prices of domestic and imported mines, which had always been in a high position, also declined.

Joint metal network statistics show that from last weekend, the smooth operation of the North China Iron Concentrate market took the lead in the past few weeks, with a total decrease of around 30 yuan / ton. The mainstream price of the 66% iron concentrate Market in Tangshan is 1010-1030 yuan / ton (wet base, excluding tax, factory). The mainstream price of 65% iron concentrate Market in Hanxing district is 1090-1100 yuan / ton (wet base, excluding tax, factory). Correspondingly, the market of iron concentrate in the northeast and East China has gradually loosened in recent years, and some areas have been slightly explored, with a cumulative range of 10-20 yuan / ton.

At the same time, the import ore market also showed a downward trend. Now, the price of the 63.5% printing powder is 184-187 dollars, and the spot price of the 63.5% printing powder in Qingdao port is 1340 yuan / ton (wet ton, including tax), compared with last week's 1370 yuan / ton, it has fallen 30 yuan / ton.

Tang Jing, an analyst with the joint metal mesh mineral channel, said that with the gradual arrival of the off-season steel sales, coupled with the gradual emergence of the central bank's tightening monetary policy effect and the impact of the current monetary policy on people's expectations, it is expected that the domestic iron concentrate market will continue to show a weak downward trend in the near future.

"The sharp rise in steel output has further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand." Xu Xiangchun, chief consultant of my steel network, told the economic reference daily.

He revealed that statistics show that the average daily output of steel reached 1 million 968 thousand tons in April, equivalent to about 7.18 billion tons of output per year. According to the forecast, the annual demand for steel in China should be 6.5 billion tons, which means that nearly 70 million tons of steel production capacity will exceed demand.

Xu Xiangchun pointed out that the huge release of capacity by various steel mills not only caused the situation of "oversupply", but also led to a fall in prices. On the other hand, the demand for iron ore, coking coal and other resources brought by high production capacity would also accelerate the price rise of these raw materials, thereby further increasing the operation cost of steel mills, and the operation of steel mills would continue to deteriorate.