The Chemical Fiber Industry Chain Is "Eating Dry And Squeezing". What Does Hengli Rely On To Dominate The "Polyester River And Lake"?

In recent two years, there are more and more factors influencing the operation of polyester market, and the correlation between market price and oil price has weakened. The PTA spot market is similar.

In the second half of last year, the market of chemical fiber was like roller coaster, especially polyester polyester industry, which was affected by crude oil price and other factors.

In 2019, the operation pressure of the chemical fiber industry increased significantly, and some indicators showed downward trend. Under the complex environment, the market was more sensitive and the fluctuation increased. But in such a case, polyester leading enterprises can still maintain explosive performance, especially Hengli petrochemical. Recently, the three quarter report was released in 2019. Both operating income and net profit have reached a record high, which once again amazed the world.

In the evening of October 23rd, Hengli Petrochemical (600346) announced the three quarter report in 2019. In the first three quarters of this year, Hengli petrochemical company achieved a business income of 76 billion 329 million yuan, up 74.14% over the same period last year. The net profit of shareholders belonging to the listed company was 6 billion 817 million yuan, an increase of 86.64% over the same period last year, far exceeding the historical performance level, and the earnings per share reached 0.98 yuan / share.

In addition, the company's cash flow has also improved significantly. During the reporting period, the net operating cash flow of the company was as high as 26 billion 624 million yuan, an increase of 368.70% over the same period last year.

　　 Judging from the content of the announcement, Hengli's overall business performance can achieve substantial growth mainly in two aspects.

On the one hand, since May this year, the Hengli 20 million ton / year refining and chemical integration project, which was wholly built by the company, took the lead in the industry and entered the performance contribution period. After benefiting from the continuous, stable and efficient operation of the refinery after its commissioning, the refinery assets became the main driving force to promote the rapid growth of the scale and profitability of the listed companies in the two or three quarter.

In addition, the average price difference of domestic PTA industry has expanded compared with the same period last year, helping the company's profit growth. Hengli shares has an annual capacity of 6 million 600 thousand tons of PTA capacity, and is building 5 million tons of new capacity. At present, it is the largest PTA listed company in China.

At the same time, it has obvious leading edge in industrial technology research and development and large-scale cost competitive advantage. Hengli petrochemical product integration mode of upstream and downstream capacity integration effectively optimizes and improves the profitability of listed companies.

Polyester industry chain "eat and dry": disadvantaged enterprises are being forced to go, refining and leading to seize the cost advantage.

With the competitive advantage becoming more and more concentrated on large enterprises, the characteristics of large-scale development of PTA industry are more and more obvious. On the basis of the increasing efficiency of large-scale production facilities, the level of cleaner production in the PTA industry is also getting higher and higher, and the energy consumption level keeps decreasing.

Everyone has reduced the energy consumption that can be reduced. They are "eating dry and squeezing". Even the processing fee per ton of PTA can be less than 500 yuan, which can be said to have done the utmost. Near zero discharge technology, catalyst recovery technology and recycling technology of solid waste have been well applied. Of course, this is another way to show that PTA technology is beginning to meet the ceiling.

Unlike other polyester enterprises, Hengli Petrochemical has the characteristics of large scale, large scale production and integrated structure in the whole industrial chain of polyester fiber chemical industry, and has the complete supporting power of power, energy, wharf, storage and transportation, energy and material consumption, productivity integration and coordination, and the advantages of comprehensive cost and operation efficiency are outstanding.

The Hengli refinery has 20 million tons of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, 11 million 500 thousand tons of heavy oil hydrogenation unit, 9 million 600 thousand tons of reformer, 4 million 500 thousand tons aromatics plant, 1 million 300 thousand tons of mixed dehydrogenation unit and so on. Hengli refinery is also equipped with self-contained coal-fired power plants, self built coal and hydrogen production, methanol production, acetic acid plant and self provided crude oil terminal (2 tons of 300 thousand tons), product oil terminal and crude oil tank area. The annual cost is estimated at 30-40 billion yuan. In addition, Hengli refining and petrochemical project produces PX and acetic acid direct pipeline to the Hengli PTA factory in the park, which can save a lot of freight, tariff, loss and other intermediate costs.

　　 The integration of refinery and chemical integration projects will trigger a change. Who will take the lead in production will enjoy a longer bonus period.

PX is an important raw material for the production of PTA. At present, the world's PX is mainly used to produce PTA. But for a long time, there is a big gap in the capacity of PX in China, and the dependence on foreign trade is very high. In 2019, China's PX imports remained relatively high, almost 50%. In the past two years, the investment of polyester polyester industry in China has extended to the upstream area. The development trend of "refining and chemical integration" is obvious, and the capacity is further concentrated on leading enterprises.

Global PX production capacity will be released gradually. Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, Hengyi Brunei PMB petrochemical project, Hengli refining and chemical integration project, Sheng Hong's 4 refining and chemical projects will be gradually put into operation in 2-3 years, and the total capacity of the 4 sets will total nearly 13 million tons. At the same time, the continuous growth of demand for polyester in downstream market directly supports and supports the sustained development of PX industry.

According to introduction, in 2016 ~2018, the operation rate of PX installations in China was 83%, and this figure was around 69% in 2019, and the figure is expected to be 71% in 2020. At present, the degree of industrial chain integration will be further deepened, and the 3 links of PX-PTA- polyester will enjoy an overall profit growth, but the profit space will be redistributed. Enterprises that have a complete integrated industrial chain of "PX-PTA- polyester" will maintain an obvious competitive advantage. And who will take the lead in production, who will be able to enjoy the first big bonus from the PX capacity gap, obviously Hengli Petrochemical has become the first one.

　　 The leader of refining and chemical integration has dominated the "polyester River and lake". How many polyester factories can remain in the market in three years?

According to the market's open data, the world's leading petrochemical enterprises have over 10 billion net profit scale. From the investment scale, project volume, product structure, market profitability and company strength, Hengli 20 million ton / year refining and chemical integration project is conducive to Hengli Petrochemical to further strengthen the competitiveness of the whole industry chain, optimize the product structure of production capacity, enhance the continuous profitability, and resist the cyclical fluctuations of single business cycle and enhance the company's operational risk level.

It is understood that at present, Hengli Petrochemical is concentrating on accelerating the construction of 1 million 500 thousand tons of ethylene (including 1 million 800 thousand tons of ethylene glycol, 720 thousand tons of styrene, 423 thousand tons of polypropylene, 400 thousand tons of high-density polyethylene, 140 thousand tons butadiene, and other domestic scarce, high value-added chemical products), 5 million tons PTA and other major projects, of which ethylene project and 2 million 500 thousand tons / year PTA-4 line project will be put into production next month.

In addition, 2 million 500 thousand tons / year PTA-5 project, 1 million 350 thousand ton / year multi-functional high quality textile new material project and 200 thousand tons / year high performance automotive industrial yarn technical transformation project will also be put into operation next year. All of the above projects are in full swing. Hengli Petrochemical is expected to achieve output value of 300 billion yuan and profits and taxes of 65 billion yuan.

From the current industrial structure, this is the golden age of development for polyester leading enterprises. The gap between leading enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises will further widen. New capacity is almost digested by giants. Leading enterprises continue to expand their market share, consolidating their competitive position and strengthening the control power of leading enterprises on prices. However, other polyester enterprises may not all be lucky.

Those enterprises with old equipment, limited scale and serious homogenization of products will be eliminated. The polarization phenomenon will become more and more obvious in the polyester industry. The phenomenon of big fish eating small fish will be staged. This is also the rule that any industry develops to a certain stage.