It Is Expected That Shenzhen Hong Kong Through Mechanism Will Be Compared With Shanghai And Hong Kong.

CICC pointed out that unlike the Shanghai market, the Shenzhen market has not only the main board, but also small and medium sized boards and gem. The number of listed companies is 1629 (main board, medium and small board, gem 468, 740, 421), and the total market capitalization of A shares is 14 trillion and 800 billion (VS. Shanghai market 29.3 trillion yuan). Compared with the Shanghai market, the number of Listed Companies in Shenzhen market is more; the average market value is small; private and growing enterprises account for a relatively high proportion; growth industries such as technology, medicine, consumption and other industries account for a relatively high proportion; in recent years, the average profit growth is faster; transactions are also more active, turnover rate is significantly higher than that of Shanghai market; and from the performance of stock prices, it is obviously better than Shanghai market in recent years, but the average valuation is also significantly higher than the Shanghai market.

CICC expects Shenzhen Hong Kong through mechanism to be comparable to Shanghai and Hong Kong through mechanism, but may be slightly more flexible. Specifically, (1) the total volume of the northbound transaction is also expected to be 3000 billion billion, or when the Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong launched the Shanghai Hong Kong and Hong Kong through quota expansion, it will expand with the total amount of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the total amount. (2) the shares covered by the North transaction are expected to have two possibilities, one possibility is similar to Shanghai Hong Kong through mechanism, covering the stock market of Shenzhen stock market and corresponding index. Component stocks It is mainly listed on A/H and Shenzhen stock market (which may cover a total of 308 stocks, accounting for about 49% of the market value); the second possibility is to cover a larger number of stocks, such as the 1000 index of stocks in the stock market in Shanghai (with a market share of about 82%, and a share of the total market value of the stock market covered by Shanghai and Hong Kong equities); (3) stocks traded in the south direction: although Hong Kong and Shanghai have launched the Shenzhen and Hong Kong Exchanges, Shanghai and Hong Kong share the same trade with Shenzhen and Hong Kong. shares It is possible to expand than the current coverage, but it is estimated that the scope of its protection for investors is difficult to expand to a smaller market share including Hongkong listed companies. (4) participants threshold: there is no restriction on the participants in the North transaction, but the threshold for the South transaction may be lowered with the Shanghai Hong Kong through mechanism.

CICC believes that Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect Similarly, the potential beneficiary shares of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong include: (1) directly benefiting from the expansion of brokers and exchanges; (2) the relatively unique stocks of Shenzhen and Hongkong market relative to the other market; (3) QFII favors or "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" active stocks similar deep market and Hongkong Market stocks; 4) stocks with relatively large A/H spreads and so on. The above categories are not mutually exclusive and may overlap.

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Many market participants say that the interest rate reduction effect on the stock market is limited, at least far less than last (last November 24th) stimulus. I agree with this statement, but I think the biggest effect of this rate cut on the stock market is to block the adjustment space. People who understand technical analysis are very clear that before the Spring Festival, China's stock market has entered a round of adjustment of the weekly level, and in the adjustment of the weekly line level, a Japanese line level rally has made the A shares (Shanghai Stock Index) appear to have a "two high point" form. Such a form is really ugly. If there is no good news to stimulate, as long as we turn the head down again, it will be easily understood by the market as "Ma Tou" and the adjustment will be increased. However, with the stimulus of interest rate cut and the stimulation of PMI data slightly improved, the adjustment of this week's weekly level will no longer panic, at least the probability of completing the adjustment will be increased at least.

But the problem is not in the stock market, but in the money market. For some time, money market interest rates have been hovering above 4%. If the interest rate of money market can not be reduced to the interest rate near the deposit rate, the currency speculation will make the central bank's interest rate policy greatly reduced. Because the decline in deposit interest rate will increase the interest rate difference between deposit interest rate and money market interest rate, thereby increasing the speculative profit of currency.

After the last time the central bank cut interest rates, especially before the Spring Festival, the speculative profits of currencies were as high as 5%. This is a very bad phenomenon. It will make the capital flow out of the deposit market and flow to the currency speculation market. In this way, the availability of loans in the real economy will be affected, which will at least push up lending rates. So that monetary policy transmission problems. We emphasize again that currency speculation is a financial idling. The greater the scale of financial idling and the poorer the financial health, the more difficult the real economy will be.

Therefore, we have always stressed that China's financial problem is not the problem of monetary aggregates, but the issue of financial structure. It is the issue of short-term financial development. It is the problem that finance can not effectively form capital, and it is also a problem that can be used for the long term funds in the real economy. On the contrary, there are too many financial arbitrage funds and too many short term funds. The more short-term funds are, the more serious the mismatch of deposit and loan period is; the more serious the mismatch between loan and deposit maturity, the greater the demand for short-term funds. This is also the key reason for the high interest rate in the money market.

Some people say that speculation in the stock market is not arbitrage. Right! But this arbitrage is not arbitrage. The arbitrage of stock market is the difference between the stock price and the price. This is the process that capital pricing must go through. Without the frequent and effective trading of stocks, capital prices can not be formed. The value of listed companies can not be fully reflected. Equity financing, as the most important core capital of enterprises, will be hindered, and the cost will be very high. Moreover, the arbitrage capital of the stock market is directly targeted at industrial capital, whether buying or selling, and its trading decisions must be directly based on the differences in the operation of enterprises. Therefore, such transactions, whether short-term speculation or long-term investment, will directly support the real economy.

But in China, interest rate speculation is completely different. It does not help interest rate pricing, but distorts interest rate pricing. In developed countries, interest rate speculative arbitrage usually has only a few or more than a dozen basic points arbitrage space. Therefore, arbitrage not only needs high technical ability, but also needs dozens of credit leverage. Such a small arbitrage, it has activated the market, and effectively and quickly filled the market volatility. However, China will not turn the general deposit into the risk-free interest of arbitrage of several hundred basis points at the same time. If the competent foreigner makes big levers from abroad, and then through some channels to exchange Renminbi for interest rate speculation and currency speculation, the risk free return will be as high as several hundred per year. On the surface, they are drinking on the financial body, but these interests must be paid by the real economy. Can such financial costs support the growth of the real economy?