Chemical Materials: PTA & Glycol Rising Trend Is Not Recommended

TA was once up and down yesterday. The root cause was cost. PX rose from 1270 in the afternoon to 1420 before the festival. In recent months, the offer was delivered to US $1500. In terms of cost, TA's processing fee has been pushed to the extreme value, so it is not surprising to follow up 500 points. So is cost driving sustainable?

We can see that the price of PX is still brought up by aromatics, which is the old saying: overseas oil product demand is in peak season, oil transfer demand is hot, aromatics export, and even MX in South Korea is once more expensive than px. This magical image is all supporting the story of oil blending,

On the other hand, the sharp rise of more than $100 is also full of suspicion that funds will be forced to close positions before the festival. Due to the lack of overseas data and asymmetric information, we can not prove the story of aromatics.

In a word, at present, the TA side is still operating the aromatics market brought by the demand for refined oil. The story of overseas demand has not been broken, and aromatics are still relatively strong in the short term. Secondly, it is recommended not to pursue more in the near future. If the fund bubble is punctured, there will be a turbulent flow under foot.

Overseas recession and domestic relaxation, frequent policy, and the aftereffect of normalization of nucleic acid still need to be paid attention to.

Crude oil returned to supply, strong reality promoted crude oil to US $121, naphtha decreased rapidly, PX strengthened before the festival, soared by US $70, aromatics overseas data is difficult to quantify, pay attention to the price difference.

In the game between strong cost and weak demand, it is still pushed by the cost. Due to the recent accidental maintenance of units, Ta is still in a position with large elastic space. At present, pxn500 is relatively strong in the short term. It is suggested to wait and see.

The short-term price is stronger by TA, but the decline has already appeared, and the demand is hard to be expected. The two new units have been in normal operation, and the oil system maintenance has returned. The new units in the United States are expected to start shipping in July. The subsequent import shrinkage is limited. In reality, it is still difficult to find the path to the warehouse, and it is still in the accumulation stage under the most serious supply side shrinkage, In view of this, we can only seek short positions in the future.