Solving The Problem Of High Housing Price

Housing shortage in Shenzhen may change.

      On May 15, the first session of the seventh Shenzhen Municipal People's Congress opened. Qin Weizhong, acting mayor of Shenzhen, made a report on the work of the government on behalf of the Shenzhen Municipal People's government. According to the report, Shenzhen will implement a large-scale housing construction plan. This year, the supply of residential land will be no less than 3.6 square kilometers, and the newly started housing area will be more than 15 million square meters; 80000 public housing units will be raised for construction, and more than 100000 rental housing units will be raised for renovation.

      Shenzhen has a small land and many people. On May 17, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of statistics officially released the bulletin of the seventh national census of Shenzhen. The census results show that the permanent resident population of Shenzhen (including Shenzhen Shantou Special Cooperation Zone, the same below) is 17.5601 million, an increase of 7.136 million people, an increase of 68.46% and an average annual growth of 5.35% compared with 10.424 million in the sixth national census in 2010.

Under the background of rapid population growth, the supply of residential land in Shenzhen was at a low level all the year round. According to the statistics of the 21st century economic report, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the total supply of residential land in Shenzhen was only less than 1000 hectares, far behind other first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and so on. The imbalance of supply and demand pattern has pushed Shenzhen's housing prices to a high point to a certain extent.

With the implementation of large-scale housing construction plan, how will the supply and demand pattern of Shenzhen change? Will Shenzhen's high housing prices be suppressed?

Large scale of residential land

      In fact, the housing problem in Shenzhen has long been taken seriously by the government. In June 2018, Shenzhen issued the draft of opinions on deepening the reform of the housing system and accelerating the establishment of a housing supply and security system with multi-channel supply and multi-channel security, which is called "secondary housing reform".

According to the draft, Shenzhen will raise 1.7 million new housing units by 2035, including 700000 commercial housing units, accounting for about 40% of the total; There are 1 million public rental housing, affordable commercial housing and talent housing, accounting for about 60%.

With the advance of "secondary housing reform", the supply of residential land in Shenzhen has begun to increase in recent years. According to official data, in 2020, Shenzhen will further strengthen the construction of commercial housing, with a total construction area of 12.36 million square meters, the highest in all years, with a year-on-year increase of 160%; The supply of commercial housing land is 227.53 hectares, which is 182% of the 2020 implementation plan.

According to the "Shenzhen 2021 construction land supply plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "supply plan") issued by the Department of natural resources of Guangdong Province, the supply of residential land in Shenzhen will be further improved. According to the supply plan, Shenzhen plans to supply 1130 hectares of construction land in 2021. It includes 363.3 hectares of residential land, 171.4 hectares of industrial land, 543 hectares of people's livelihood facilities and 52.3 hectares of commercial land.

   《 According to the supply plan, this year Shenzhen plans to supply 363.3 hectares of residential land, accounting for 32.1% of the total planned supply, which is 24% and 142% higher than that in 2020 and 2019, respectively; It is planned to supply 149.3 hectares of commercial housing land, which will be supplied in three batches. In addition, the supply of rental housing will be expanded to ensure the demand for land for rental housing from the source of land use. The planned supply of rental housing land is no less than 37 hectares, accounting for more than 10% of residential land.

Shenzhen has been very active in ensuring the supply of residential land, and the structural problems of land supply in the past have also been changed. According to the notice on the adjustment of statutory plans issued by Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources recently, 13 commercial land or industrial land have been changed to residential land and educational land.

In addition to making efforts in land supply, the government work report also proposes that this year Shenzhen will raise 80000 sets of public housing, supply 35000 sets of public housing, and raise more than 100000 rental housing units through renovation.

In the next five years, Shenzhen has made it clear that it will accelerate the promotion of "livable housing", further adjust the land supply structure, increase the supply of residential land, and reduce the volume of commercial services, so as to ensure the realization of the goal of a new round of "housing reform".

High house prices?

In recent years, the high housing prices in Shenzhen have increased the pressure of talent settlement, and some industries have to spill over to the surrounding cities. According to the data of China real estate market network, the average price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen will rise by 32.9% in 2020.

In April 2021, the official wechat of the people's Bank of China issued a working paper naming Shenzhen. Innovation and entrepreneurship rely on young people, but most of them have no money. The price of a city is too high, which forces them away. How can we talk about innovation. This may become an obstacle to the long-term development of Shenzhen.

In this situation, Shenzhen has issued a number of strict policies on housing regulation since this year. On February 8, this year, Shenzhen housing and Construction Bureau issued a document to establish the release mechanism of second-hand housing transaction reference price, and released the transaction reference price of second-hand housing in 3595 residential districts in Shenzhen.

After the introduction of the reference price of second-hand housing transactions, many banks in Shenzhen also acted quickly and formally issued a document regarding the transaction reference price of second-hand housing as the reference basis for mortgage loans.

The impact of this policy on the market immediately, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions fell to the freezing point. According to the Shenzhen real estate information network, in April 2021, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen was 4877, a decrease of 28.2% compared with March. The transaction area was 440122 square meters, a decrease of 23.3% compared with March.

According to the sales price changes of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April 2021 released by the National Bureau of statistics on May 17, 2021, the first-hand house in Shenzhen will increase by 0.5% month on month, and the second-hand house will be the same as that of the previous month, with the year-on-year increases of 3.9% and 12.9% respectively.

From the short-term data point of view, Shenzhen's housing prices have indeed stabilized to a certain extent, without rising momentum. So, in parallel with the large-scale housing construction plan in Shenzhen and the expected severe regulatory policies, to what extent can the long-term high housing price situation in Shenzhen be alleviated?

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, told the 21st century economic report that the implementation of large-scale housing construction plan has a positive effect on Shenzhen. It will greatly increase the proportion of public housing supply, which will help to ease the housing difficulties of young people, new citizens and newly employed College Students. The two systems of housing security and housing market are more balanced.

However, Li Yujia also has doubts, "will the housing price be suppressed? It's hard to say. Because the supply of new public housing in Shenzhen still depends on the commercial housing in the market. That is to say, the developers should pay the bill. It is necessary to pay for the affordable housing and talent housing through the commercial housing market. In this case, house prices may not necessarily be under control. Internationally, housing security in Hong Kong, Singapore and other places in China has done well, but the prices of commercial housing are also very high. "