On The Other Hand, There Are No Orders For Improvement, While The Market Is Constantly In Turmoil.

As the epidemic intensifying, new changes have taken place in the textile market. And when the development of the epidemic tends to be regular, the textile market has begun to stabilize, and gradually some new normal forms have been formed.

Lack of terminal demand, weaving withstand heavy pressure

First of all, the operation of textile enterprises has become difficult.

Affected by the epidemic, the terminal demand has been greatly suppressed, and in the industrial chain, the gradual transmission has led to a "stagnant" situation in the market.

When the order in the market can be transferred normally, brand operators, garment factories, traders and weaving enterprises perform their duties, terminal consumers buy the right products, and every link in the industrial chain can earn the profits.

However, when the terminal consumption is blocked, every link in the industrial chain is still closing up capital and reducing risk. At this time, the weaving end of the upstream industry chain has been under more pressure than ever before.

In terms of inventory of grey cloth, there are about 42 days of billet storage, although it is slightly lower than the previous peak, but it is still at a high level.

At present, the starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is about 67%, which is nearly 20% lower than the same period last year. Before the terminal demand is improved, the cash flow of weaving enterprises can not be effectively replenished. It is foreseeable that in the next period of time, weaving enterprises will further shrink production, grey cloth inventory will be accumulated step by step, loom start rate will be reduced step by step, and cash flow will gradually dry up.

The market is a little bit, but it will die out.

When the market is normal, the cloth on the market is scattered in the various links such as garment enterprises, traders, weaving enterprises and so on. We all bear part of the financial pressure. From the above model, we can see that when the market is not good enough and the market confidence is not enough, the traders choose to reduce the stocking stop, and the weaving enterprises bear more pressure.

At the same time, the market does not have no money. Because of shrinking business, the cash flow of trading companies is actually very abundant.

And when traders have a lot of money to wait for the bottom, when the wind is blowing, the entire textile market is like a haystack on Mars.

In fact, it is also true that when the market is hot, the price of raw materials and polyester production and marketing will generally be increased, and polyester production and marketing will be more intuitive.

From the recent stage of the average production and marketing trend of polyester Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, we can see that after the April, polyester production and marketing ushered in the three wave, one wave in early April, one wave in the last week of April, the last wave in early May.

The outbreak of production and marketing in early April corresponds to the rise of international oil prices. The outbreak of production and marketing in the last week of April corresponds to the 130 million meter DTaP list, while the outbreak of production and marketing in early May corresponds to the gradual resumption of overseas efforts to make the market look promising.

After being stimulated, traders are willing to buy grey fabric under the influence of bottom hunting psychology, while some weaving enterprises take advantage of this opportunity to buy more raw materials than originally planned. But under the pressure of fundamentals, this situation will not last too long, and the market will soon return to calm, waiting for the next wave or demand or speculation.

However, there is always risk in hyping the bottom. When we see the market, we must keep a cool head and try not to turn ourselves into a disc player.

Foreign trade to domestic trade, offline transfer line

After entering the May, a wave of news of the resumption of foreign industry resumed, and the market was also very fond of this set. The price that should not rise has finally risen.

But the fact is that demand is always lagging behind. When the number of confirmed cases of global new crown pneumonia has exceeded 4 million, the intensity of final resumption of production in European and American countries is still doubtful.

At this time, orders are often the most honest. Xiaobian went to ask 7 enterprises last week, and only one of them said that foreign trade orders had improved. Xiaobian did not believe in evil spirits, and made a survey, involving nearly 200 enterprises. The final result shows that only 16% of enterprises feel that the market has improved recently.

And the problem is not just the lack of orders. Last week, BYD sold to the United States masks but encountered the aftermath of "immortal jumping". Although there is no new standard problem in selling clothing fabrics, in the event of a sudden increase in customs duties, this kind of thing has not happened.

Under such circumstances, it is not surprising that some enterprises shift their focus from foreign trade to domestic trade. "The proportion of foreign orders in the company has decreased from 7 last year to less than 30% today. In the future, we intend to focus on expanding channels for domestic sales," said Chen, manager of traders.

In the domestic trade, online shop orders have attracted special attention as a new market in recent two years. Especially in this year, the demand for physical stores has not been able to get warmer. The order of online shops has played a more important role in fabric sales.

Compared with the physical stores, there are certain "bad money drives out good money" in the process of online clothing sales in addition to some flagship stores of clothing brands. Because we can not feel the sense of clothing, consumers can only judge the quality of clothing by means of photos and evaluation, while online shops usually have the phenomenon of "brush list", and the sales volume of online stores is often not directly proportional to the quality of clothing. In terms of fabric, online shop orders are often a price win situation. The list is not big, competition is not small, and the price is even cheaper. As a provider of fabrics, ultimately, it can only earn a hard money.

However, I believe that when the sales volume of online stores is bigger and bigger, consumers' demand for this quality is getting higher and higher, and the supervision of all aspects will be strengthened step by step, this situation will gradually change.