Textile Orders, Export Restriction, Weak Consumption, PTA Price Down

Recently, crude oil prices fell sharply, PTA costs collapsed, PTA futures prices fell below 4000 yuan / ton line down all the way, repeatedly hit a new low since the listing.

Panic eased.

The Federal Reserve announced on the 23 th of this month that it will buy unlimited US debt and MBS on demand, unlimited QE. In addition, the US Senate has reached an agreement on the bipartisan stimulus plan, and the US fiscal stimulus will reach 2 trillion dollars. The Fed has unlimited QE and US Treasury stimulus policies to ease the panic in the market liquidity crisis.

Meanwhile, the Texas oil and gas commissioner said that if Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to limit crude oil production, Texas could also consider reducing crude oil production by 10%. This boosted the rebound of crude oil, thus forming a certain support for PTA price. However, the overseas epidemic is still not at the top, and the demand for crude oil has continued to decrease. In addition, in order to fight for market share, the main oil producing countries have come back to the negotiating table with great resistance.

Social inventory dropped slightly

From the supply side, the recent PTA device maintenance is more, such as Hengli 4# and new Feng Ming opened for two weeks of maintenance, last week the device load dropped to 69.7%. Polyester load was maintained at around 8, a marked increase compared with the end of February. PTA social inventory dropped by 100 thousand tons from a high 3 million 500 thousand tons, and the base slightly strengthened.

However, most of the repair period is about half a month. Next week, the maintenance device will gradually restart and the load will pick up. At present, PTA spot processing has risen to 630 yuan / ton, and the futures disk processing has risen to 700 yuan / ton. PTA has been maintaining a positive structure. In the face of high inventory and sales pressure, PTA production enterprises can still cooperate with arbitrage companies to advance the capital and lock processing errors ahead of time, so as to stabilize production. Therefore, the load or rise of the PTA unit is analyzed from the angle of maintenance and processing.

Textile orders export restriction

Along with the resumption of production and resumption of production in various parts of the country, the downstream has gradually recovered, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has returned to 73%, returning to normal level. This is due to domestic export orders for rush to resume work and rush to work. At present, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is very serious. It is hard to say when to see the top. The demand for overseas textiles has plummeted. China's textile exports account for nearly 6 of the total, overseas demand is flagging, domestic textile export orders are decreasing, and domestic textile products are backlog.

From the polyester end, the load has returned to a higher level, and the stocks remain high. The polyester class libraries exist for 30-35 days. Affected by the decline of export orders, the inventory and capital pressure of textile enterprises climbed. The enthusiasm for starting in the 2 quarter will decline, and the loom start up rate or decline, which will exacerbate the pressure of polyester industry storage, thus forcing it to reduce its load.

In short, weak demand will stifle PTA prices. At present, PTA disk processing fee has risen to a higher level. Under the background of negative basis, enterprises can actively use futures disk to lock processing fees and avoid price fluctuation risks.