Where Is Spring? Price Down! Losing Money! The Whole Industry Chain Does Not Make Money, Is It Far From The Price Increase?

Although it is not a drop, the boom of the chemical fiber industry has dropped markedly since last year's skyrocketing, and it feels like "winter". In particular, almost every link of the whole industry chain is in a downward trend.

　　 Trend chart of polyester yarn since 2018

　　 With the general trend of decline, almost all links of the entire chemical fiber industry chain have been in a state of loss.

(1) the difference of PX- naphtha processing is around $300 / ton, which is at the edge of loss.

　　 (2) the PTA processing error fluctuated near 700 yuan / ton, and the equipment with lower processing level had already lost money.

(3) the pet factory is profitable for some time, but due to the late terminal inventory and its weakness in production and marketing, it has further led to the sale of polyester factories. Most of the products have been in a loss and no profit, especially FDY.

(4) stock of terminal grey cloth is high. According to statistics, inventory in Shengze area is about 40 days, more than 10 days higher than the same period last year. When the industry is in bad condition, the terminal enterprises are mostly in arrears, and the cash flow situation is worrying.

Price down! Losing money! The entire chemical fiber industry chain almost does not make money. So where is spring? Is the price far away?

One

First of all, the trade situation has improved markedly, and positive signals have been released to the outside world. It is reported that in the afternoon of October 11th local time, trump said that the economic and trade consultations had achieved substantive first stage results, and will suspend tariffs on China this week. If the trade situation continues to improve, it will directly increase the external demand of chemical fiber products.

Two

Secondly, under the downturn of the industry, every step of the industrial chain will take measures to make the whole industry "live" again. For example, the sharp rise of ethylene glycol in the first half of September is due to the continuous lowering of device load and the superposition of industry events.

　　 In the same way, PTA and polyester factories will lose their weight through overhaul if they are not profitable. And terminal loom and loom have reduced load by way of vacation, so as to digest inventory more quickly. The decline will inevitably change from quantitative change to qualitative change.

Three

Once again, the crude oil was sharply increased, trade situation eased, and production and sales rebounded on Friday (the production and marketing of polyester main factories were concentrated near 130%-140%, and the higher 220% and 300% of them were higher). In October 12th, the polyester fiber price increased significantly, especially the extinction category.

　　 Although the national day long holiday, polyester stocks increased, but the overall inventory is still low.

Four

Finally, the absolute price of each link in the industrial chain is at a relatively low level in history, and the value point appears. Once more favorable factors emerge, it will drive the release of speculative demand such as stockpiling.

On the whole, although the industry boom is relatively low, but with the accumulation of many factors, especially the reduction of device load, from quantitative change to qualitative change, overlay the mitigation of trade situation, if terminals can smoothly go to the warehouse, then the spring of the industry will not be far away.