When Will The US Recession Report?

The latest survey shows that most economists predict that the US economy will fall into recession in the next 2020 years or 2021 years. After adjusting the monetary policy by the Fed, economists postponed the prediction of economic decline.

Agence France-Presse reported that the National Association of Enterprise Economics (Natio) Nal Association for Business Economics (NABE) showed that only 2% of the 226 economists interviewed predicted that the US economy would decline this year, down from 10% of the survey conducted in February.

The Federation has released a strong signal suggesting that last year's interest rate rises will be changed under the shadow of the economic and trade prospects such as the US China trade war.

NABE president, and also chief economist of Co, KPMG. Nstance Hunter said: "economists interviewed believe that monetary policy changes will drive sustained economic expansion".

However, in a summary of the report, Hunter said that economists were divided on 2020 or 2021. 38% of the respondents estimated the economic downturn next year, while 34% predicted that the economy would be in decline after the next year.

The survey shows that the 46% forecast will cut interest rates at least once in 2019 years, and some 1/3 respondents predict that interest rates will remain at the current level.

The Associated Press reported that the financial market suffered a setback in the middle of this month amid the possibility of the US economic recession, adding doubts about the existing trade tensions.

In the NABE survey, economists suspected that the trade war launched by trump could be concluded by agreement. However, 64% of the respondents said they could reach a "surface agreement". Nearly 1/4 respondents believed that the US and China would not reach an agreement.

NABE, which was conducted in July 14th and August 1st, coincided with the US President Trump's request for a reduction in interest rates. The benchmark interest rate will be lowered in July 31st. Trump announced in August 2nd that it would impose a 10% punitive tariff on goods exported to the United States which did not impose tariffs on the remaining 300 billion US dollars. However, the new tariff measures were implemented in two stages. The first phase came into effect in September 1st and the second phase came into effect in December 15th.

In the face of Trump's repeated attacks on the Federation, NABE survey shows that economists are concerned about the subsequent impact. 55% of respondents believe that although trump shooting can not control the decision of the Federation, it will destroy the public's trust in the Federation.

More than 1/4 respondents believe that Trump's bombardment will "cause the alliance's policy to turn to moderate and dangerous independence."