Polyester Filament Rebound In The Second Quarter With 4 Market Waves; The Boss "Pays" For The Price Increase Of Raw Materials

This is a story of raw materials and weaving market falling in love and killing each other!

After the huge bull market of commodities last year, the price of polyester products this year can be said to be falling all the way, which makes the market people a little confused. But recently, the "weekend market" of polyester filament is unexpected. In the second quarter, the polyester filament market experienced four waves of market rebound (at the end of April, the end of May, the beginning of June, and the middle of June). The market was silent on each weekday, and production and sales were concentrated on weekends. After the continuous high volume of production and marketing, the inventory of polyester enterprises has dropped significantly. According to statistics, as of June 19, the inventory of POY had dropped to 4-8 days, the inventory of FDY had dropped to 10-15 days, and the inventory of DTY had dropped to 18-24 days, the lowest level in nearly two months.

Market people seem to have got used to the situation that polyester filament is always a "few days tour". After all, "father of the gold owner" is not rich. Although the upstream cost has been boosted, the crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded The PTA plant has been intensively overhauled recently, and the whole polyester raw material market has stopped falling, which has supported the bottom of polyester filament. However, whether the downstream customers can buy it or not has played a major, even critical role in the trend of the raw material market. According to the author's interview and research, the mentality of the bosses of Bu recently mainly comes down to the following two points:

01

The price of raw materials is at a low level, and you won't lose money if you buy some!

Compared with the "inexorably" rise in the raw material market in August last year, the raw material price this year is much more low-key. As can be seen from the price trend chart of polyester filament in the figure above, the current polyester filament products have been at a low level in the past year, which also leads to many spin The reason why the boss buys raw materials more or less.

"At present, the raw materials are at a low level. Even if the grey cloth produced at this price is stacked at home, it will not depreciate as badly as last year," said Mr. Chen, a textile boss in Wujiang. According to statistics, the average price of FDY150D is 8100 yuan/ton at present, 850 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the year, and other products have also declined to varying degrees.

02

The raw material inventory is at a low level, and production needs to be used anyway!

In fact, every time the price of polyester filament market rises, the downstream is very "cooperative". The main reason is that after the Spring Festival and before the Tomb Sweeping Festival, the market has not released a big demand signal, and downstream purchasers are cautious about placing orders for fabrics, which led to the failure of the market in March and April this year. The market transaction atmosphere was general, and the manufacturer's inventory began to accumulate, and the speculation on the stock of raw materials also decreased accordingly.

As the market performance continues to be weak, the price of raw materials falls again and again, which leads weaving manufacturers to purchase on demand. Generally, raw materials are purchased on demand. It is reported that at the beginning of June, the stock of raw materials of most weaving manufacturers was 7-10 days. After two rounds of purchase, the stock of raw materials rose to 10-15 days, which was a low level for manufacturers whose previous stocking cycle was 15-20 days.

In addition, in terms of the operating rate, the current operating rate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is relatively high, especially for the water jet looms in Shengze market, the operating rate is maintained at 80% to 90%. Under the high load operation, the purchase of raw materials is just in need, which explains that the manufacturer will frequently replenish goods recently, but because the inventory of the weaving manufacturer is at a high level in the same period this year, it is difficult to realize the inventory, As a result, enterprises are more cautious about the use of funds, and have always maintained a small purchase of raw materials. Therefore, polyester production and marketing generally end after two or three days of travel.

After explaining why the cloth owner has been "paying" for the price increase of raw materials recently, another more puzzling problem has come: in the environment of high inventory and low demand, is it because the orders are going to improve that the weaving manufacturers are still "working hard" to produce?

Last week, a "different" voice was heard in Changshu, Xiao Shao and Shengze markets: market orders were slightly improved. Some weaving factories that had no orders to do before also received some small orders last week. Some manufacturers that did custom weaving had more or less orders to execute. Most manufacturers could still achieve the end of June with orders on hand, and better manufacturers could achieve the work on hand in July.

In the process of interview and research, half of the bosses still said that the current market situation was poor, and it was difficult to level production and sales. However, many enterprises said that although conventional products were unsalable brand Orders for customized textile products with business cooperation are still being issued in a planned way.

It can be seen that under the weak environment, the market is not as pessimistic as the rumors. The product trend has begun to polarization. Some unsalable products have been in the stage of accumulated inventory, while the production and sales of marketable products in the market can still be flat. After the first half of this year's "peak season is not busy, off-season is very light" market, some bosses said: no matter how bad it is, it depends on whether there can be a turnaround next!

At least in the eyes of Xiaobian, the textile market is releasing some positive signals next!

1. Some product orders began to be placed, and there was always a need for "nine gold and ten silver";

No matter whether the "golden nine and silver ten" in the second half of this year will continue to "discount", the clothing industry still has a strong demand for fabrics. Although it is difficult for conventional goods to "turn over" due to overcapacity, the market share of other products is still improving. It is reported that at present, the transaction of luggage fabrics, rayon lining, elastic fabrics, etc. is partially smooth.

2. Sino US trade relations may ease, and the previously suppressed orders will be released in succession;

In fact, the imposition of tariffs on Chinese products by the United States has plagued the textile industry for a year. The friction continued to escalate in May, causing some orders from the United States to start to decrease. Although the current market situation is not clear, China's position as the world's processing factory is not easy to shake, and the quality of products and long-term tacit understanding are not so easy to be replaced by Southeast Asia.

On June 18, the leaders of China and the United States said in a telephone conversation that they would find a solution to the current differences as soon as possible. Many weavers believe that after a wait and see period of a month or so, the orders that were suppressed in the early stage will finally be issued.

3. The G20 Summit is coming one after another, which is conducive to the policy oriented positive release;

Every G20 summit will release some favorable policies to the market economy. This year, the global economic environment is not good. It is estimated that the "tangible hand" and "intangible hand" will continue to push the market.

4. The short-term change of RMB exchange rate deserves special attention, and the trend of trade negotiations is an important variable;

No matter whether these factors are signs of improvement or bubbles, at least at present the dull weaving market has made many bosses "accustomed". In the face of the ups and downs of the market, most cloth bosses who are down-to-earth in the textile industry still choose to stick to the industry.

"The market is poor this year, but we will not reduce construction. After surviving this year, there may be a different spring next year!" Mr. Chen from Wujiang said. At present, market participants are quietly waiting for the biggest "mystery" in the first half of the year to be revealed - where the Sino US "sweater war" is headed