PTA Has A Good Upstream And Downstream Situation, Especially Downstream Polyester.

PTA futures 1701 contract reached a high level of 5126 yuan / ton in July 5th, and all the way down the road. At present, the downward trend is not yet over.

The key point to suppress the PTA price is the 1 million tons of warehouse receipts on the 1609 contract and the successive drop in crude oil prices.

Looking ahead, the 1701 contract will gradually have buying value, and the industry cycle will slowly become more diversified.

PTA has a good upstream and downstream situation, especially downstream polyester.

Since the polyester operating rate increased to above 80% in mid March, it has continued to work at a high rate.

This is because polyester stocks are at a low level.

There is no financial pressure.

After the middle of July, the profit level of polyester factories rose sharply.

From the supply side, although the volume of Iraq's August load fell, but Beihai, Russia and Angola increased, the decline in Nigeria was relatively limited, and the supply side was expanding.

From the demand side, the market has been concerned about the rise of refined oil stocks in the past few years. Not only in the United States, Europe, and Singapore, but also the refinery overcapacity, but the market is more of a lack of demand.

5 to September is the peak season of driving in the United States. The past seasonal rule is that stocks of crude oil and gasoline have declined and stock of distillate oil has increased.

But this year this rule was broken, only crude oil inventories declined, while gasoline stocks slowly climbed.

The United States is so, so is Europe.

More importantly, from the demand side, the middle of 8 months is usually the peak of the refinery operating rate. Before that, the purchase of refineries will go down.

For the United States alone,

The difference between crude oil smelting and off-season crude oil is as high as 1 million barrels per day.

At present, oil prices have fallen below the annual line, and the market will continue to bottom.

However, oil prices will not fall to the lows at the beginning of this year, or even fall below 40 yuan / barrel for a long time.

Among them, the most positive point is that the output of traditional oilfields has begun to decline gradually, and the output of traditional oilfields such as the United States, China, Mexico and Beihai has been declining year-on-year.

OPEC's output in Iran has basically returned to pre sanctions levels, and OPEC's remaining capacity is relatively limited.

Therefore, the big pattern of the crude oil market is shifting from surplus to balance.

Suppress

The biggest drag on price rises is the huge volume of warehouse receipts on 1609 contracts.

As of July 27th, the total volume of warehouse receipts plus effective forecasts was 189 thousand, that is, 950 thousand tons of goods.

According to the provisions of Zheng Shang, these goods must be written off at the time of delivery of the 1609 contract.

This means that nearly 1 million tons of goods will need to digest before and after September.

There are two ways to digest PTA huge warehouse receipts: scheme 1, PTA factories reduce production and recycle warehouse receipts, and deliver them to downstream polyester enterprises as contract goods.

Scheme two, 1609 contracts will turn the goods to 1701 contracts.

Plan two requires trading companies or investment companies to negotiate with PTA companies about the terms of exchange, and use warehouse receipts to exchange PTA spot that meets the delivery rules.

The first one depends on whether PTA enterprises will take the initiative to reduce production. We think this will happen.

In the past two months, PTA companies suffered serious losses.

Since May 20th, the loss rate of enterprises has increased, and the extent of loss even reached 250 yuan / ton in early June and early July.

The PTA cost we calculate is the real time PX price plus the processing fee of 500 yuan / ton, which can make up for the cost for large enterprises, while the smaller devices require higher processing fees.

The longer the loss will lead to active parking.

In addition, after October, the cold weather in the north is not conducive to the opening and stopping of enterprises, and the cost of maintenance is also greatly increased. Therefore, enterprises have greater probability of overhaul before October.

In short, if the warehouse receipts are effectively digested in the future or the market expects this, the 1701 contract will gradually strengthen.