The Probability That The Market Will Start A Larger Down Band Is Very Small.

This week the market is divided.

The focus of the difference lies in the nature of the adjustment from the 3069 point of the big market. Is it the end of the whole 2780 point rally? Or is it merely a short-term shock adjustment, thus laying the foundation for the subsequent upward steps? For personal judgement, I hold the latter view.

The reasons are as follows.

First, if we think that the recent adjustment is the end of the second point rebound in the 2780 point, that means that the market will not only return to the 2780 point, but also will retest the 2638 point in the market in a relatively short period of time.

In addition, the early market is the three major uncertainty factors under the severe test of success, and in the expected three quarter of the whole, we can not find enough to compare with the three major uncertainties in the early stage.

。

Therefore,

The probability of opening a larger falling band is very small.

Second, study the wave structure of the market since the 2780 point rise. We can find that the market has recovered from 2780 to 3069, so far it has only operated two upwards small bands, one from 2780 to 2945, and the other from 2807 to 3069.

From the structural analysis, the rise in the 2780 point is obviously the second wave of the 2638 - point opening of the intermediate market.

Since it is the second wave, its running characteristics will consist of three ascending small bands.

According to the normal track operation rule, the adjustment starting from 3069 points is only a short-term digestion and finishing of three Zhou Yang lines from 2807 to 3069 points in nature.

This is from the angle of weekly average run or from weekly line.

The angle of reflection can be mutually corroborated.

For this week's adjustment, the author has clearly indicated that 3070 to 3100 points will not be easy to break through. 3000 to 3100 point interval takes one or two weeks to digest and consolidate.

But this is only a short-term adjustment. There is no sign of any change in the medium term rebound trend.

For this 3069 point adjustment, its reasonable target level is 2980 to 3000 points.

When the reasonable supporting position in space is basically determined, then comes the time factor.

The author estimates that the relatively low time for this short-term adjustment is likely to be in the first half of next week.

Therefore, closely observing the next week's time and space nodes, and paying attention to finding the opportunity to reduce the increase will be the main strategy of next week's operation.

The same conclusion can be drawn whether it is the weekly average line system or the structural characteristics of index operation.