Deep Understanding Of PX Capacity Growth

In the 2004-2015 year, the global PX capacity increased by an average of 6.77%.

In 2014, after capacity growth reached 18.78% peaks, some PX capacity began to be eliminated.

In 2015, the growth rate dropped to only 1.37%.

In the next 5 years, global PX capacity is expected to return to normal growth again, with 6-7% level maintained.

The increase is mainly from China, the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia.

However, if the polyester demand growth rate may be lower than that level, the elimination of backward production capacity may still exist in the future.

In addition to the faster growth in capacity in 2009, the average growth rate of China's PX capacity in 2007 -2015 is near 12%, but there are also investment gap periods, such as 2010 and 2016.

No new PX capacity.

In 2009, due to the two phase of the operation of Fu Jia Dahua, CNOOC Huizhou and Shanghai petrochemical, the capacity growth rate reached a peak.

The domestic PX device is shown in Table 1. Generally speaking, compared with the production speed of downstream polyester and PTA, the commissioning process of China's PX plant is relatively slow.

Although it has always been the focus area of investment, PX manufacturers concentrated on three barrels of oil and the conditions for entry of private enterprises were too high. The real peak of investment has not yet come.

In a ten year cycle, the next peak of investment in China's PX is expected to occur near 2019.

The PX installations for future investment are basically matched with refineries, and the scale of the refineries is concentrated in the specification of 1500-2000 tons / year. The main scale of the PX plant is 100-200 million years / year, and all of them are large-scale development. Most of them are supporting enterprises of PTA and polyester factories to extend upstream. There are also some investment plans outside the industry, such as Ningxia pagoda, Hebei Jiu Rui, and Xin Xin group.

In April 2015,

The sudden explosion caused its 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant to stop for a long time, making the domestic output growth not obvious in 2015. The shortage of domestic output caused a significant increase in imports. In 2015, the import volume of PX reached about 11 million 600 thousand tons, and the import dependency ratio increased to 55%.

In 2016, no new PX capacity was put into operation, and Tenglong aromatics reorganization was unlikely to be restarted until September next year. The production capacity has not changed significantly this year. It is expected that the overall PX installation will be improved. The import volume will still maintain a high level. The import dependency is expected to be 50% left and right. But after 2017, domestic production capacity will be substantially increased, and domestic PX production will increase significantly. The growth of China's PX output will further replace part of the import increment, and the degree of import dependence will also show a downward trend, as shown below in the next five years.