March Economic Data Is Hard To Pick Up.

As soon as March is about to end, a number of agencies have recently issued forecasts for macroeconomic data.

At present, the mainstream view of the organization believes that the growth rate of economic activity indicators in March will still be lower than expected, and monetary and fiscal policies need to be strengthened and relaxed.

CPI or year-on-year increase of 1.3% from the first two months of 2015, 0.8% and 1.4% of the CPI year-on-year increase has increased the pressure of deflation in China.

Zhang Xiaochun, a securities analyst at the League of nations, believes that prices are likely to decline in March after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the growth rate of CPI will decline in March, up 1.3%.

From the March production data and the prices of commodities, the prices of some commodities such as steel, coal and gold have shown signs of stabilization or even rebound.

Zhang Xiaochun predicts that PPI will probably stabilize or even rebound slightly in March, with a growth rate of -4.8%.

The two economic data forecast values of 1.3% and -4.8% were approved by CICC and Shanghai securities at the same time.

Bank of China expects CPI to rise by 1.2% in the first quarter, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year, and PPI is expected to continue to fall in the first quarter, or around 4.4%.

The growth rate of the year-on-year slowdown is dragged down by the dislocation of the Spring Festival and the tight policy. The industry expects that the growth rate of economic activity in March will still be lower than expected.

CICC expects GDP to grow 7.2% in the first quarter compared with 6% in the quarter after the quarter.

The industrial added value is expected to increase by 6.4% in March, compared with 6.8% in January, which means that industrial production in March is lower than the previous year.

Affected by the impact of the Spring Festival on the March and the tight macroeconomic policy constraints, the growth rate of fixed asset investment is still weak.

It is estimated that the fixed asset investment in March will grow by 13% year-on-year, slower than the 1-2 month in March, implying that the fixed asset investment growth in March was 12.3% over the same month.

Founder Securities also believes that the first quarter GDP year-on-year growth rate decline will become a probability event, mainly affected by the slowdown in the industrial economy dragged down, while the third industry still maintained relatively high growth rate.

To a certain extent, to alleviate the downward pressure on GDP growth.

Monetary and fiscal policies need to be redeployed. In February, the scale of credit exceeded the market expectations and increased by 1 trillion and 20 billion yuan.

Under the precondition of credit overdraft, the financial data in March declined steadily.

CICC expects M2 to grow by 12% in March, down from 12.5% in February. It is expected that the new RMB loans will remain relatively stable, and that in March will be 1 trillion yuan, less than 1 and February 1 trillion and 250 billion on average.

Although the Spring Festival factor distorts the data, the overall performance of economic growth in March is weak, and inflation continues to decline. CICC believes that monetary and fiscal policies need to be strengthened and relaxed. Especially after the disappearance of the Spring Festival effect in the two quarter, the inflation figures are likely to descend further.

Conversely

The more lag, the greater the adjustment of future needs.

Bank of China released a report yesterday that China's fiscal policy in the two quarter will be intensified.

At the same time, we will continue to reduce taxes and reduce fees, deepen the reform of investment and financing, fiscal and taxation systems, and accelerate the development of "dual engines".

This year's monetary policy will remain stable, and it may be lowered 2-3 times in the future.