Stock Market: Waiting For Economic Growth To Get Better In Real Terms

Although the stock market opened year after year, the stock market did not show a large upward trend, but it was also a warm trend. In fact, years ago, in the bleak background of the real economy data, the hot stock market has already made some investors nervous. This unrest comes from the structural transformation of China's economy. They speculate on when to determine the bottom line of China's economic growth.

Since 2013, the engine of China's economic growth has begun to shift gears. Before that, China's economy was in a period of rapid growth. The main driving force of China's economy came from investment, and real estate investment in investment was the top priority. From 2004 to 2013, the average annual growth rate of real estate investment was around 20%, and this rate returned to 10.5% in 2014, and there is a further downward trend. The decline in real estate investment is an important driver of economic growth.

In the period of rapid economic growth, another driving force for economic growth is export. During the period from 2002 to 2011, China's export growth remained at an annual rate of 20%. In the last two or three years, the external cause was the global economic recession. The internal reason was that the RMB exchange rate continued to rise, which led to an increase in export growth to 7%. The latest economic data show that this trend has not changed.

Despite the fact that the real economy is still in the cold winter, the market has issued a signal that the economy is bottoming out and the trend of long-term interest rates is turning. According to the price trend of treasury bond futures market, the price of treasury bonds had bottomed out at the end of 2013, and then entered the fluctuation range, and began to keep rising in the first half of 2014. This reflects the market's expectation of loose monetary environment and is constantly being verified by policies. Now, money. Easing policy It still has a role to play, and it is expected that there will still be a reduction in interest rates and a reduction in interest rates to meet the needs of steady growth and the threat of deflation.

In addition, economic data It's not dark. In February 25th, HSBC's manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.1% in February, indicating that the manufacturing sector is back to expansion. This data is higher than previously expected, also higher than the January final value of 49.7%, reaching a high level of 4 months, reflecting the previous market expectations too pessimistic.

Judging from the detailed index of HSBC PMI initial value in February, output index and new order index rebounded, indicating that steady growth projects have begun to play a role. The new export orders index fell sharply to 47.1%, indicating that the renminbi is too strong, causing the export sector to suffer.

Back to the stock market. In the months ahead, the economic background of the stock market is still in the bleak economic reality and good expectations for the policy, and the new cycle of economic growth is bottoming out. Expect Middle transformation. When people put more emphasis on economic realities, the stock market pullbacks; when people pay more attention to good expectations, the stock market will gain momentum. The fluctuation of stock market is adjusted to expect substantial changes in economic growth. An important reality in stock market investment is that the adjustment of economic structure is the main keynote of the new growth cycle of China's economy. The adjustment of stock price and market value structure will also change with the change of economic structure. This needs to be paid more attention to when investing in the stock market.