Water Skin: Changing Bull Market Is National Conditions

　　事实上，在不少投资者看来，年终年初集中出笼的券商年度报告就可以看成是一种集合指标，的确一定程度上是可以作反向指标来运用的，因为这是一个大多数的反映，而股市投资的规律就是大多数人赔钱，少数人挣钱，反映到对市场趋势的判断上，大多数就是错误的，只有少数人是正确的，这是一方面;另外，券商报告的基础其实是过去，2015年的判断一般基于2014年的情绪，从逻辑上讲，这是一种因果关系，而因果关系绝大多数人都能看清楚，看不清楚的是关联关系，由此及彼的联想、替代，很少有人从2016年的可能去预测2015年的市场的;但是，2016年又恰恰就是在2015年后要进入的年份，谁能够割裂它们的关联性呢?那么基于这种逻辑，我们可以分析一下，2016年的经济增速会止跌回升吗?

The government of 2013, 2014 and 2015

Will China's industrial restructuring have a positive result? Will internationalization of the RMB lead to China's leading role in the international economy? Will the weight of China's capital market rise one by one in the emerging market index?

Will the monetary policy reset really be moderately relaxed? If the answer is no, even if the market in 2015 is a rebound, if the answer is yes, then the 2015 market is a big stage of the process, on or off is repeated, the general keynote is to enter two retreat one.

Now look back, so many brokerages, the direction of the correct judgement is only about 1/10, the most accurate index is about 3000 points of Southwest Securities, and the most firm position is Guotai Junan, although the 400 point is low, but the three wave of judgement is established. It is ridiculous that at the end of the year, a lot of cheers are heard by the broker, but the stock market is down sharply. At the beginning of the year, the market plummeted, and someone jumped out of the bull market immediately.

In contrast, the insistence on private placement seems to be valuable. Zhao Danyang claims that this market is the biggest bull market in human history. Dan Bin jokes that this is a bull market never seen before in Chinese history. The expression is exaggerated, but it is also reasonable. If the Chinese dream is to be realized, then the stock market in China must be a huge market, but most people will not stick to that day.

From 2005 to 2007, the index rose from 998 to 6124, or 5.13 times. It is already a rare market in our lifetime. Is it possible for us to meet again in our lifetime? In fact, if we turn forward, the Shanghai Composite Index will have a minimum of 325 points in 1994, and the Shanghai composite index will be the highest in 1994 to 2245 points, or 5.9 times.

Reform and opening up are unprecedented. Huge market quotations will emerge again and again, and three will always be the minority.

The difference between a big hole and a historical high is very huge, and coincides with the political cycle. It appears in the era of the Yangtze River. It appears in the age of Hu, and it has appeared in the time of the tiger. The historical high point has not yet appeared. This is why, since last August, water skin has been emphasizing that this is the origin of a wave of politically correct prices. Many people do not understand it. It is normal that many people do not understand it. It is because the growth rate of GDP is down. So there will be a market situation. Only if the market can be IPO can we solve the financing difficulties and reduce the risk of banks. Only in this way can we increase the market value and increase the cost of financing and mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, so as to enhance consumption and drive the economic recovery. This is the logic of the current rising market. Perhaps this is not a coincidence. Two of the history of A shares.

Once again, for a country like China, macroeconomic regulation and control is an important form of government existence. It can not be cancelled or even stopped. The rest is only when and where, what intensity and means are different. The essence of macroeconomic regulation and control is the regulation and control against the market, and the reverse regulation.

The so-called policy market, of course, also has the policy market policy failure situation, compared with the previous 2013 and 2012, either policy problems or implementation problems.