Monetary Easing In The US, Europe And Japan Has Entered China's "Structural Tight" New Environment.

G3 (US, EU and Japan) has a sharp contrast with the withdrawal of quantitative easing from the US and the quantitative easing of EU and Japan. At present, the global economic and financial situation will have new situation and structural characteristics: first, the global economic recovery process will be unstable and unbalanced in the long run. Two, the violent turbulence in the international financial market has become the norm. Three, the difference in monetary policy of developed countries will boost the US dollar. In particular, if we refer to the relationship between the US monetary policy cycle and the US dollar cycle, the US dollar strong cycle may last for about 4~5 years, and the US dollar is still a global safe asset for a long time.

The progress of the recovery of the real economy determines the future direction of monetary policy. In the past two years, the US economy is undergoing a new round of economic recovery cycles due to a series of structural changes, such as the domestic cost reduction, labor market reform, and the shale gas revolution brought about by the energy cost advantages, manufacturing reflow and import substitution strategy. Therefore, normalization of return is imperative.

In order to stimulate the weak economy and tight inflation, the European Central Bank has opened the era of negative interest rates. The European Central Bank lowered its key refinancing interest rate from 0.25% of historical lows to 0.1%. In addition, the bank also lowered its deposit interest rate to -0.1%, becoming the first central bank to implement negative interest rates in history. The EU's latest PPI data show negative growth for 9 consecutive months, coupled with a weak economic recovery. The ECB's unconventional QE policy may be inevitable. In addition to the new round of LTRO (long-term refinancing scheme) and SMP (securities market plan), there will be a broader long-term asset purchase plan, which will carry out quantitative easing.

Japan, also facing the stagnation of the recovery, has launched massive quantitative easing. In order to ease the pressure of debt and deficit, the Japanese government increased the consumption tax. At present, the Japanese government debt is as high as 247%, and the total debt has risen to an astonishing 400%. The scale of the national debt has exceeded 1000 trillion yen for the first time, surpassing the sum of Germany, France and the United Kingdom. In 2014, Japanese government debt servicing accounted for nearly 1/4 of current account expenditure, and 1/2 of recurrent expenditure was issued by treasury bonds. Debt risk is on the brink of crisis, so we have to rely on increased taxes to make up for financial deficits. In April 1st this year, the Japanese government increased the consumption tax from 5% to 8%. This is the first time Japan has raised the consumption tax in 17 years. According to the Japanese government's estimate, the increase of consumption tax can bring 8 trillion yen annual revenue. However, the Japanese government has a fiscal shortfall of 50 trillion yen this year, plus more than 1000 trillion yen's outstanding debt. The excise tax increase is obviously a drop in the bucket for fiscal revenue.

Japan's economic rebound Consumption expenditure There is a lot to do with the rise. In 2013, Japan's GDP growth rate was 1.6%. From the perspective of aggregate demand structure, residents' consumption contributes 1.2 percentage points, which is the most important driving force for growth. In order to further increase revenue, the Japanese government plans to further increase the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in October next year, which is bound to create a new blow to the resurgence of consumer spending. In fact, since the launch of Andouble economics, Japan's macro-economic savings rate and the slow growth of fixed asset investment have all contributed to the deterioration of the potential growth rate in the medium and long term. Under such a prospect, the launch of a new round of quantitative easing policy will be the Bank of Japan. policy One of the important options for the list. Last year, the Bank of Japan had promised a doubling of the monetary base at the end of 2014, so it is likely to further expand the monthly debt purchase scale by 30%~40% next year.

Japan's aggressive monetary policy and its policy of stimulating inflation are a serious challenge to Andouble economics, and it is likely to subvert the stability of Japan's national debt and foreign exchange market. Once inflation rises to a target level of more than 2%, market investors may transfer asset allocation portfolio to risky assets and sell security assets such as treasury bonds. In 2014, the total demand for debt financing in Japan was the highest among the developed countries. With the withdrawal of QE from the US Federal Reserve and the rise in global long-term bond yields and the rise in Japan's inflation rate after Japan's consumption tax increase, the decline in the demand for public debt is bound to push up the debt burden of Japan and increase the risk of sovereign debt financing.

　　 dollar The cycle and the financial crisis follow the trend and show some unusual characteristics: first, crises almost always occur in the turning point or turning point of the US dollar cycle trend. In other words, the strength of the US dollar relative to the other major currencies has turned weak or weak into strong ones. It must be accompanied by one or more financial crises. Two, the large-scale flow of international capital (mainly speculative hot money) is always accompanied by crises before and after the crisis. Three, the turning point or inflection point of the US dollar cycle is always caused by major changes in the domestic fiscal and monetary policies or international political and diplomatic strategies.

The global financial risk pricing and capital structure will be greatly adjusted in the next two or three years. The underlying cause is the important watershed of the Fed's monetary policy shift, which will lead to changes in global interest rates and capital flows. The Fed has issued a policy signal to raise interest rates in 2015. Since the US Treasury bond market is the largest and most active bond market in the world, all kinds of investors, including mutual funds, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, foreign governments and individual investors, are all equipped with US Treasury bonds. The US Treasury bond has always been regarded as a global risk-free bond, and its yield is risk-free interest rate. Therefore, it has become the asset price vane and pricing basis of the global financial market. In the next few years, the world may enter a risk window again.

For China, the risk is even more important. The withdrawal of the US quantitative policy triggering the decline of the "pool level", and the accelerated superposition of China's deleveraging and the marketization of interest rates may mean that China has entered a new "normal" monetary environment with a "structural tight" trend. The continued rise in domestic interest rates will be an inevitable trend, which will have a greater negative impact and downward pressure on domestic economic restructuring and economic growth.