Zhong Xin: "Stable Economy" To Promote Moderate Recovery In Exports And Consumption In The Second Half Of The Year

China 2014 23 Leather Industry Zhong Xin, Professor of economics and management of Beijing Normal University, shared the situation of China's macroeconomic operation in the first three quarters of 2014.

This is manifested in the following aspects. Zhong Xin introduced, first, the situation of agricultural production is better. In the first three quarters, the output of pigs, cattle and sheep and poultry was 59 million 750 thousand tons, an increase of 2% over the same period, of which pork production was 39 million 720 thousand tons, an increase of 3.3%.

Second, industrial production is basically stable. In the first three quarters, the industrial added value of above scale industries increased by 8.5% over the same period, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points over the first half of the year. The production and sales rate of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 97.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first half of this year. Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size achieved export value of 87483 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% over the same period last year. In September, the added value of above scale industries increased by 8%, an increase of 0.91% over the same period.

Third, fixed asset investment growth slowed down. In the first three quarters, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 357787 yuan, an increase of 16.1% over the nominal period (after deducting the actual price growth by 15.3%), and the growth rate dropped 1.2 percentage points over the first half of the year. In the sub industry, the first industry invested 864 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 27.7% over the same period, the second industry invested 150180 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, and the third industry investment of 198965 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4% over the same period.

Fourth, steady growth in market sales. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 189151 billion yuan, up 12% from nominal growth (10.8%) after the deduction of price factors, and the growth rate dropped 0.1 percentage points over the first half of the year. In September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 11.6% compared with nominal growth (10.8% in real terms after deducting price factors), with a growth of 0.85% over the same period. The first three quarters of the year, the national online retail sales volume of 18238 billion yuan, an increase of 49.9% over the same period last year.

Fifth, the growth rate of imports and exports has picked up. In the first three quarters, the total import and export volume was 31626 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2.1 percentage points faster than that in the first half. Among them, exports amounted to 16971 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.1%, and imports of 14655 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.3%. The balance of imports and exports is 231 billion 600 million dollars.

Sixth, consumer prices are generally stable. In the first three quarters, consumer prices rose by 2.1% over the same period, or 0.2 percentage points lower than the first half. Among them, the city rose by 2.2%, and the countryside rose by 1.9%. In September, consumer prices rose 1.6%, up 0.5%

Seventh, steady growth of residents' income. In the first three quarters, the per capita cash income of rural residents in the whole country was 8527 yuan, an increase of 11.8% compared with nominal growth (9.7% in real terms after deducting price factors). The per capita disposable income of urban residents in China was 22044 yuan, an increase of 9.3% in nominal terms (6.9% in real terms after deducting price factors).

Eighth, structural adjustment has made positive progress. industrial structure More optimization. In the first three quarters, the added value of the third industry accounted for 46.7% of GDP, 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, higher than 2.5 percentage points of second industries. Demand structure continues to improve. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 48.5%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The income gap between urban and rural residents has been further narrowed. In the first three quarters, the per capita cash income of rural residents increased by 2.8 percentage points faster than urban residents' disposable income. The average income of urban and rural residents was 2.59, which was 0.05 lower than that of the same period last year. New progress has been made in energy conservation and consumption reduction. In the first three quarters, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 4.6% compared with the same period last year.

Ninth, the growth of money and credit is stable. At the end of 9, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 120 trillion and 210 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9% over the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 32 trillion and 720 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, and the balance of currency (M0) in circulation was 5 trillion and 880 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%. In the first three quarters, new RMB loans increased by 7 trillion and 680 billion yuan, an increase of 404 billion 500 million yuan compared with the same period last year. RMB deposits increased by 8 trillion and 270 billion yuan, or 2 trillion and 990 billion yuan over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the scale of social financing was 12 trillion and 840 billion yuan, a decrease of 1 trillion and 120 billion yuan over the same period last year.

Zhong Xin stressed that, in general, the national economy in the first three quarters of the year has maintained a stable overall situation, and the development trend of Naka Yujin and steadily improving quality. However, the environment at home and abroad is still complicated, and economic development is still facing many difficulties and challenges. The next stage will scientifically recognize the new normal and actively adapt to it. New normal goals We should focus on reform and innovation, strive for spanformation and upgrading, focus on improving people's livelihood, maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, adjust the fine tune in a timely and appropriate manner, and strive to achieve stable and healthy economic development.

Looking forward to the whole year's macroeconomic in 2014, we can generalize with three "stable" words. "Stabilizing the economy": in the second half of the year, exports and consumption are expected to be warmer and warmer, and China's economy is expected to remain stable in the second half of this year. "Steady investment": in the second half of the year, investment still needs strength. "Stable policy": the policy of steady growth in the second half of the year is still expected to be directed. Among them, investment or the biggest uncertainty facing the economy in the second half of the year.