Unexpected Weak US Inflation Data Triggered An Avalanche Of The US Dollar

The US dollar index plunged sharply yesterday, and the US producer price index (PPI) for September, which was released on the day, unexpectedly declined, the first decline since August 2013, mainly due to the recent sustained slump in energy costs. As one of the forward-looking indicators of inflation, once the inflationary pressure disappears, the policymakers of the Federal Reserve may no longer be eager to discuss the issue of interest rate rise, and the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate rise has also cooled.

The monthly rate of retail sales in September, the monthly rate of core retail sales in September and the monthly rate of PPI in September announced by the United States tonight all fell, causing the three major stock indexes of Dow Jones, Standard&Poor's and Nasdaq to all plunge, the dollar index to fall below 85, and COMEX gold once stood at 1240.

Previously, Jim Reid, head of global basic credit strategy at Deutsche Bank, warned in advance that if the US economy entered a recession in the future, the Federal Reserve might launch a new round of QE after weighing. Overnight US Federal Reserve Chairman Williams

He said that the asset purchase plan really helped the economy get rid of the 2007-09 recession, and he would not hesitate to adopt quantitative easing again if necessary. Although the US dollar index fell for a short time, the market's demand for risk aversion exceeded the Federal Reserve's expectation of postponing interest rate hikes. The future market of the US dollar is still optimistic.

Judging from today's market situation, the policy trend of the Federal Reserve in the next 12 months is expected to cause major market fluctuations. The Federal Reserve's concern about the global economic slowdown and declining inflation is not unreasonable. Weak US data eased the pressure on the US to raise interest rates in advance. At the same time, the weak US data also made the market more worried about the global economic weakness. Risk aversion will permeate the market. In the short term, the market trend may focus on risk aversion.

Technically, the US dollar dropped sharply yesterday, falling below the lower limit of the previous high shock range, and falling below the support closing of the 5, 10, and 20 day moving average, which means that the bullish atmosphere of the US dollar has weakened, the short popularity has increased, and the future market will continue to look for support. Today's dollars index The resistance to short-term rise is 85.15-85.20, and the short-term important resistance is 85.35-85.40. The support for the dollar index correction today is 84.40-84.45, and the important support is 83.75-83.80. euro /The support of the US dollar at 1.2600 continues to be effective. Yesterday's sharp rebound temporarily eased the short position of the exchange rate. EUR/USD rebound resistance is 1.2900, and important resistance is 1.3000. Only when the euro/dollar effectively stands above 1.3000 can it limit the mid line reversal market to a large extent. Otherwise, it is the best time for bears to short.

　　 dollar Today, short selling is the main short-term operation. Break the position and stop loss. If there is a profit of more than 30 points, set a stop win. Withdraw all pending orders before the opening of the US market. This strategy is suitable for margin, and firm offer can be used as a reference.

USD index: It can be sold at the upper limit of the range 85.20 -- 84.40, effectively breaking 30 stops, and targeting the lower limit of the range.

EUR/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the range 1.2900 -- 1.2760, effectively break 30 stops, and aim at the upper limit of the range.

GBP/USD: You can sell at the upper limit of the range 1.6040 -- 1.5930, effectively break 40 stops, and target at the lower limit of the range.

USD/CHF: You can sell at the upper limit of the range 0.9455 -- -0.9345, effectively break 40 points to stop loss, and target at the lower limit of the range.

USD/JPY: You can sell at the upper limit of the range 106.40 -- 105.00, effectively break 40 stops, and target at the lower limit of the range.

AUD/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of the range 0.8780 -- 0.8660, effectively break 40 stops, and target at the upper limit of the range.

USD/CAD: You can buy at the lower limit of the range 1.1370 -- -1.1210, effectively break 40 stops, and target at the upper limit of the range.

Gold: It can be sold at the upper limit of the range 1252.00 - 1225.00, effectively breaking the stop loss of $10, and targeting the lower limit of the range.

Silver: It can be sold at the upper limit of the range 17.80-17.00, effectively breaking the stop loss of $0.40, and targeting the lower limit of the range.