Multiple Factors Superposition Help Market Institutions Four Reasons For Singing Rebound

< p > last week, < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > A share market < /a > has been at a high level above 2200 points. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 2230 points high for 3 consecutive trading days. As of Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.47%, Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.23%, and the gem index rose 1.09%.

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< p > since the end of July, it has been affected by many favorable factors. The continuous upswing of the big market has been staged "a href=" http:// "www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > the "air force market" < /a >. Analysts generally believe that this is a solid foundation and a clear expectation for the long-term bull market in the future.

At present, in the process of preheating bull market, the market shows a "push up squat" near "push up" action. This trend is more conducive to the continuation of local hot spots and market, and it is expected that the market will continue to expand further after the short term adjustment.

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P > < strong > < a href= > http://? Www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > policy < /a > heating is beneficial to rebound continuation < /strong > < /p >

< p > we can see that the core logic of the current round of rebound is that the policy surface is constantly raising the price, triggering the economic cycle to pick up, while Shanghai and Hong Kong continue to show the anticipation and policy favorable sectors, attracting the incremental capital, including peripheral hot money, to continue to enter the market.

Shenyin Wanguo said that in the short term, this logic has not yet fundamentally changed: first, the good policies are still being introduced, including the "gold ten" and the Shanghai and Hong Kong pass rules. Although the performance of single month data is not ideal, there are many factors such as seasonality and economic pformation, which can not be simply understood as a policy turn. The trend of economic operation needs to be further observed. The two is that the Shenzhen B has continued to be strong since the second half of the year, and has achieved a new high in more than three years. This is an indicator to observe the continuity of Hong Kong and Hong Kong's enthusiasm. Three, the long-term trend of the slow down of the RMB exchange rate and the long queue shows that the peripheral funds are not pessimistic about the future market.

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< p > from the perspective of economic data, the PMI index which has continued to rise has strengthened the confidence of the market in the economic rebound. But the slightly weak economic data released last week gave the market a cool breeze and increased the divergence of the market towards the later economic trend.

In July, the broad money supply increased by 13.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.2 and 1 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year. The RMB loans increased by 314 billion 500 million yuan over the same period last year, reaching a new low in the past 5 years.

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< p > in addition, the total scale of social financing in July was 273 billion 100 million yuan, a decrease of 86%, the lowest level since 2008. In July, the industrial added value of above scale increased by 9% in real terms, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in June.

Moreover, in July, generating capacity was 504 billion 800 million kwh, an increase of 3.3% over the same period last year, with an increase of 5.7% in the previous period.

On the surface, economic data have dropped to a certain extent, which may indicate a possible trend of economic development in the future. However, the underlying reason for the decline is mainly due to the cardinal effect, seasonal fluctuation and the reduction of the risk preference of bank loans.

In the face of such short-term fluctuations, the market generally expects that there will be more steady growth of combined boxing in the future, and the warmer policy side will be conducive to the continuation of the market rebound.

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< p > liquidity, the central bank's open market returns to the net.

Last Tuesday and Thursday, the central bank carried out 20 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan 14 day repo operations respectively.

Last week, the open market reached a net investment of 14 billion yuan.

It is widely expected that the orientation of "directional easing" monetary policy will not change.

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< p > < strong > four reasons for singing rebounding < /strong > < /p >.

< p > at present, in the case of warming policy, rising market sentiment and orderly rotation of the sector, institutions generally expect that the Shanghai composite index is expected to exceed 2230 points, and may challenge the previous high 2260 points, and the focus of the market will continue to move steadily upward.

There are four main reasons for this: first, after a recent shake up, the short-term profit taking or dissolving sets have been basically digested.

The market is constantly touching up, showing that the market does not lack the expectation of incremental capital admission, nor does it lack the capital to be repaid. As long as these funds maintain a certain degree of activity, the current rally will not end.

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< p > two is that at present, banks, real estate and other large blue chips have been callback for a period of time. The short term indicators have been in a low position, and may rebound at any time, which will push the market to maintain a rising market.

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< p > three, data from EPFR (emerging market fund research company) show that although the global stock debt base has substantially lost blood, the stock market in emerging markets is still warming.

EPFR pointed out that the geopolitical risk factors accumulated last week, resulting in market risk aversion, coupled with the strong employment data in the United States, which made the market more stable for the fed to raise interest rates sooner than expected. It will undoubtedly increase the attractiveness of emerging markets, especially the A share market.

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< p > four is, from a technical point of view, last week, Shanghai pointed out fifth Zhou Yang line, indicating that the market trend is very strong, the weekly K-line average system is in a long arrangement, issuing golden fork, the medium-term trend is stronger.

From the Japanese K-line, last Friday, the market received the Zhongyang line, and it closed to the 5 day moving average.

The moving average system maintains the multi head divergence state, and the trend is good.

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