Appreciation Of RMB And Pressure On Foreign Trade

< p > July 21st, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1547, which rose 21 basis points compared with the previous trading day, and ended the trend of "six consecutive losses".

This year, the value of the RMB against the US dollar has depreciated from 6.0990 at the beginning of the year to 6.1568 in July 18th, which is 578 basis points lower than the beginning of the year.

Market analysts believe that the trend of RMB depreciation in the first half of this year will come to an end. The RMB exchange rate will enter the appreciation channel in the second half of the year in two way floating.

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P, an analyst interviewed by the international business daily, said that as China's macro-economy has stabilized and rebounded, the RMB exchange rate will appreciate slightly in the second half of the year, but there will be little room for appreciation.

Foreign trade enterprises should seize the opportunity to accelerate the creation of new competitive advantages.

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< p > "the unilateral trend of RMB in the past will come to an end, and now it has reached the basic equilibrium level."

For the current RMB exchange rate, Minsheng Bank (600016, stock bar) development planning department senior expert Wen Bin said in an interview with the International Business Daily reporter.

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< p > recently, the National Bureau of statistics and the General Administration of customs and the Ministry of Commerce and other departments continuously released positive data.

In July 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun said at a news conference that the national economy in the first half of the year was generally stable.

But the RMB to us dollar exchange rate does not seem to be guided by these interpretations of China's economic fundamentals. Why? < /p >

< p > Wen Bin said that from the economic fundamentals, the internal and external economic environment is changing. The change of exchange rate is affected by the domestic economic situation, and is also influenced by the trend of the US economy, and the exchange rate market is more sensitive to the macroeconomic response.

For example, the data released by the US labor department show that the number of non farm workers increased by 288 thousand in June, exceeding the market expectations of more than 70 thousand, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, a record low of nearly 6 years.

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< p > review the exchange rate trend since the first half of the year, from sustained depreciation to upward and downward drift.

In January 14th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose to a record high of 6.0950.

In June 3rd, with a price of 6.1710, the position of the central parity of RMB against the US dollar fell to its lowest level this year.

On June 5th ~10 and July 7th ~10, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose from 6.1708 to 6.1451 and 6.1658 to 6.1443, which widened the floating rate of the RMB against the US dollar.

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< p > based on the rapid appreciation of the RMB to the US dollar and the economic data of China's foreign trade and purchasing managers' index, market analysts believe that the RMB exchange rate will enter the appreciation channel in the second half of the year.

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< p > "with the increase of the floating rate of exchange rate, the main body's divergence in the trend of exchange rate is also increasing."

Wen Bin said that on the one hand, China's economy is stabilizing and recovering. The fundamentals of the economy will drive the appreciation of the renminbi. On the other hand, the recovery of the US economy, the further balance of the balance of payments, and the rapid contraction of foreign exchange will restrict the continued appreciation of the RMB.

"It may float between 6.1~6.3."

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Bai Ming, deputy director and researcher of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with an international business daily reporter that the biggest impetus for the development of foreign trade in the second half of this year was that the State Council promulgated the "opinions on supporting stable growth of foreign trade", and the implementation details of ministries and commissions and various provinces and municipalities in the mainland. "Measures to promote foreign trade can be promoted by promoting measures such as facilitating customs clearance, reducing work costs and improving efficiency," he said.

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< p > in addition, there are many favorable factors, such as cross-border electricity supplier development, BRICs cooperation, the establishment of an upgraded version of the ASEAN Free Trade Area and negotiations on the free trade area. The implementation of the Shanghai free trade pilot area, the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "twenty-first Century maritime Silk Road", the Yangtze River economic belt and the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will all bring impetus to the growth of foreign trade.

"However, the pressure on foreign trade growth in the second half of this year is still great."

Bai Ming said that according to the calculation, if the target of foreign trade growth is to be completed, it is necessary to maintain the average growth rate of 15%~16% every month in the second half.

Although the European and American markets are recovering, the impact of spillover effects on China is weakening. "The high end industry has stayed at home and South Korea, where most of the low end spills over to Southeast Asia, and China is facing challenges."

"In fact, the pressure on foreign trade is great, and the RMB exchange rate is hard to appreciate significantly."

Bai Ming said that in the face of these favorable and unfavorable factors, foreign trade enterprises should strengthen their confidence, while accelerating the learning of financial operation means, we should seize the opportune moment to accelerate the pformation and upgrading, and grasp the new competitive advantage.

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