The European Central Bank Will Carry Out The "Exchange Rate War" And The RMB Will Maintain Two-Way Fluctuations.

< p > the European Central Bank announced in June 5th that the main refinancing operating rate will be reduced from 0.25% to 0.15%, which is also the central bank's interest rate cut again since November 2013.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank also announced a 10 basis point cut in marginal deposit rate to -0.1%, which is the first central bank to implement negative deposit rates in the world.

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< p > June 6th is the first trading day of domestic a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > financial market < /a > after European interest rate cut.

On that day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar changed to a declining trend in the past, rising by 85 basis points.

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In June 9th, the news of the euro zone's interest rate cut was reported after a weekend of fermentation. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1485, up 138 points from the previous trading day, rising by 0.22% on a single day, the largest in 20 months.

This intermediate price is the highest since March 27th, and the central parity of RMB has risen for second consecutive days.

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A strong rise in the central parity of RMB P has lifted market sentiment.

The newly released < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > foreign trade data < /a > seems to indicate that China's economy has bottomed out.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs last weekend showed a trade surplus of US $35 billion 922 million in May, the highest since February 2009.

Despite the increase in imports of commodities in the first 5 months, imports of some commodities fell in May, copper imports fell by 15.6%, and iron ore imports fell by 7.2%.

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< p > Agency analysis believes that the import of goods based on trade financing purposes may have lost kinetic energy due to the depreciation of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > depreciation this year.

Under the influence of the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, the RMB exchange rate may continue to appreciate in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the trend of RMB against the US dollar will be reversed at the earliest this month, and will rise to 6.12 yuan by the end of this year.

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< p > Guan Qingyou, vice president of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, believes that the enlargement of the foreign trade surplus and the acceleration of the European Central Bank's easing will make the RMB exchange rate continue to depreciate little and will maintain two-way fluctuations.

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< p > other analysts believe that weak imports mean that domestic stable growth policies need to be overweight, and the pressure of further easing monetary policy is not small.

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< p > media reports said that the central bank's attitude is clear about whether or not to take more measures including interest rate cuts to boost the economy, that is, no interest rate cuts will be taken at the moment, because a large number of new credit will exacerbate the expanding debt and pfer funds to the real estate industry.

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< p > aiming at the changes of international and domestic economic situation, the decision-making level has taken decisive measures.

For example, the executive meeting of the State Council held in May 30th put forward five measures.

Among them, the first is to increase the intensity of the "directional reduction" measures, and appropriately reduce the reserve ratio for the banking financial institutions that meet the needs of structural adjustment and meet the market demand of the "three rural" and small and micro enterprises.

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< p > "directional reduction" is one of the most powerful policies in the current micro stimulation policy.

Micro stimulus is a new term that appears only this year. It is used to distinguish the 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan launched in response to the 2008 international financial crisis. It also illustrates the subtle situation of China's economy at present.

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< p > the author once described the quasi directional drop as "partial rainfall", and the overall reduction criterion was "good rain and heavy rain".

The former is a measure taken by the government to achieve steady economic growth. It is a micro stimulus policy, and its role is obvious. The latter is the "prescription" for the long term steady growth of the people of insight, which means a comprehensive fine-tuning of prudent monetary policy.

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< p > for the Chinese economy in the critical period of pformation and upgrading, the directional micro stimulus policy can play a role of "42 points of a thousand jin" to a certain extent.

But at that time, the European Central Bank had not yet launched the euro version QE.

After the European Central Bank launched the "exchange rate war", the trend of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will be more and more concerned. The change of the scale of foreign exchange will affect the direction of the next monetary policy.

Perhaps after the clear economic data in the second quarter of this year, it will be clear at the same time whether we should continue to "partial rainfall" or choose "rain and flood".

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