The Internet Will Enter The Duopoly Era And Ali Will Be Out.

< p > recently, there is a voice in the industry that the Internet monopoly before BAT will evolve into a competition of two oligarchs. One shark agrees with this statement, but believes that it will be Ali who will be out. In the future, Baidu will compete with Tencent for hegemony.

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< p > < strong > from flow pool to realizable channel < /strong > /p >

The business mode of < p > BAT is similar, it is a huge flow pool, and then realizes traffic realisation through various ways, and finally gains revenue.

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< p > analysis, Baidu set up a huge flow pool based on search, and has formed mobile layout (mobile Baidu, Baidu map), video (Iqiyi, PPS), application store (Baidu mobile assistant, 91 wireless), electric business (where, glutinous rice, LOHAS) and other business layout.

In addition, on intelligent hardware, Baidu uses Baidu cloud as an adhesive to introduce Baidu inside to open and cooperate to seize the mobile access.

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< p > Tencent started with the social platform of QQ and WeChat, and built its own traffic pool. Ali started shopping with Taobao and Alipay as its main business. In recent years, it has built up its own traffic pool by acquiring Sina micro-blog, Gao de map and UC browser.

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< p > in the way of realization, one shark thinks that B2B and B2C are the two ways. In B2B, it mainly focuses on advertising for small and medium-sized enterprises. In B2C, it is mainly about three ways: physical electricity supplier, life service (O2O) and finance.

Neither Baidu nor Tencent or Ali can escape these avenues.

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< p >, therefore, from the future analysis, the three BAT's fortune will be considered from the two aspects of the flow pool's import and export.

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< p > < strong > why is Ali going out? < /strong > /p >

< p > said that Ali will be out of the way in the future, which sounds fantastic. Because Ali is in the limelight now, not only has it launched a series of wars with Tencent, but also is frequently buying and going on the market. The market value is more than $200 billion and even exceeds the market value of Tencent.

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< p > in the war of resistance against Japan, the Japanese aggressors invaded China in 1944. Fu Sinian, a well-known intellectual at that time, once wrote an article, saying: < /p >

< p > "I was in Chongqing last month, and the Japanese slave was fighting Henan's war and complacent.

I took up a hexagram for him, and the hexagram was Li Yishan's "last sentence". It said, "it's uncomfortable to drive to the ancient plains."

The setting sun is infinitely fine, just near dusk.

That is to say, when a person arrives at night, what he wants to do is nothing, and his heart is in a big mess. So he drives his car to the old city. The sun is in the mountains, and the scene is also lingering. But the darkness is coming in half an hour. Though it is reluctant to part with the original scenery, after all, this fate is destined for sunset.

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< p > Ali is also such a state, although the current trend is positive, but in fact, looking further into the future, it is the fate of sunset and sunset. Why do we say so? < /p >

< p > < strong > 1. the decline of Taobao is irresistible.

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< p > if search is Baidu's life and social life is the life of Tencent, then Taobao is the life of Ali. Although Ali is constantly buying and merging, the root is still in Taobao, and the development of other platforms relies on Taobao to conduct diversion.

But with the increasing emphasis on users' experience, Taobao's growth in fake goods and poor distribution services has slowed down, which affects its reputation among users, which will damage the establishment and Realization of its traffic.

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More importantly, Ali has shifted its focus to Tmall. Tmall's development has stepped on the shoulders of Taobao, which has seriously damaged the interests of the small and medium-sized sellers. P

In last year's double eleven, there has been excessive resource gathering in oversized sellers, and small and medium-sized sellers have been struggling for a long time, which is the foundation of Taobao's future development, because future advertising depends on small and medium-sized enterprises.

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< p > < strong > 2. frequent acquisition and integration, too long front line and difficult integration.

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In the past few years, especially in this year, all of the emphasis has been on expanding through capital acquisition. However, Ali's ideas are very unclear, social interaction, map making (Gao De), music making (shrimp), and even film and television media (Cultural China, etc.). The scope of hunting is too wide, and it is more like a good story for listing, rather than a layout for future P.

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< p > more importantly, because acquisition is too long, acquisition integration becomes more difficult.

Not to mention the simple and rude placement of ads after joining Sina micro-blog, it is said that this 3.8 Taobao life festival lacks effective integration of offline resources, and the US group that shares the stake does not have to play it alone, but Baidu Nuomi has achieved a deep integration, so Ali can only watch the blocking of Baidu Nuomi without any way.

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< p > strong > 3.O2O did not think clearly.

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< p > Ali is ambitious in O2O. In fact, last year, double eleven focused on O2O on line and offline.

But one shark thinks Ali's O2O does not want to be clear. For example, last year, double eleven Ali was mainly placed on the physical electricity supplier, taking the route of "online, offline, and online", that is, through online promotion, users can go offline, and then users will return to the Internet because of convenience and low price. This is a detour, and also leads to boycott of many offline stores.

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< p > shark believes that O2O is more suitable for service than physical electricity supplier that can be consumed online.

In fact, this 3.8 Taobao life festival Ali also thinks so, but why O2O failed this time? In essence, online and offline integration is not done well, you can not shout to sell free food and drink to the whole nation, but only 8 cities cover, and free or limited.

Why did Ali become a member of the US group in the early 2011? Instead of integrating itself this time, Ali played on his own. In essence, Ali still wants to realize the diversion to Taobao rather than to the US group which is not a pro son. But how can we do well in the online and offline O2O /p?

< p > < strong > 4. lack of killer weapons in the mobile era.

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< p > mobile terminal's traffic pool is always Ma Yun's heart disease. Tencent need not say that Baidu relies on search, information, video and application store to open up mobile terminals. Even Baidu is also an important layout of mobile access through building Baidu cloud into many intelligent hardware.

But Ali, shopping can not be the user's choice of entry, acquisition of micro-blog, Gao De, UC browser and other resources are very good, but also adapt to the characteristics of the mobile era of decentralized imports, but the entrance can be dispersed, the company strategy must be integrated and unified.

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< p > < strong > the key to future success is technology and product experience, not marketing /strong > /p >

The most fatal problem of P > Ali is its gene, which is too much emphasis on marketing and public relations rather than technology and product experience.

Ma Yun is good at concept and momentum. In recent years, he has focused his energies on acquisitions. He hopes to build his empire in a way of capital.

This will inevitably affect its resources and energy in technology, product experience and so on.

Take the 3.8 Taobao life festival as an example, Ali has really done a lot in marketing, signed the hottest Lee Min Ho, and put forward the slogan of "invite the people to eat and drink free", but in fact, there are only eight cities in the actual organization.

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< p > in contrast, Baidu and Tencent are different paths of development. Baidu attaches great importance to technology tradition and Robin Li technology cattle. It is unnecessary to say that the big move of Baidu during the Spring Festival and the just released Baidu mobile trend report seems to be a good public relations tool, but behind it is powerful big data technology as support.

Without the support of technical genes, such things can not be imagined or done.

Tencent pays more attention to product experience from top to bottom, and everyone is product manager.

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< p > it can be said that the founder's character determines the future destiny of the enterprise. Although the Internet emphasizes eyeball economy and pays attention to propaganda and marketing, all of these should be supported by technology and product experience. In other words, the company who will survive in the fierce competition in the future must be the best technology and the best product experience company, rather than the marketing, PR first company.

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< p > Ali listing is a peak and also a starting point for downlink. Although Baidu and Tencent do not have many sensational news, they are steady and direct.

One shark predicts that the BAT of China's Internet will now turn into a pattern of BT duopoly.

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