Current Market Situation And Trend Analysis Of Acrylonitrile

Domestic acrylonitrile market in the early October was affected by increased air pollution and increased low price cash flow.

The offer fell sharply, dropping to 11600 yuan / ton in early November and a drop of over 20% in one month.

However, with the price falling to a low level, the cost pressure of manufacturers has increased significantly, and the intention of continuous low price shipments has been reduced.

At the end of November, with the support of low price shipments reduced, the bottom of the market rebounded slightly, and some speculation began to rise. However, in the absence of obvious follow-up to the demand side and steady supply of suppliers, the market was weak and the market was narrow.

In mid November, the overall price was 12000 yuan / ton ~12100 yuan / ton.

Overall, the market "price increase" is not easy, the market still needs a long digestion and finishing period, the price quotation of manufacturers in the future is supported by cost, or the opportunity for small and slow rise is small, but the space is difficult to enlarge, and the constraints remain high.

Although the cost side support is strong, but the demand side continues to show light, the underlying purchase is short of support, acrylonitrile high negotiation is blocked, business offer continues to bear pressure.

The domestic acrylic fiber market has been slightly consolidated, and the manufacturers have limited production and insured prices. Although the quotation continues to be stable, the demand for good support is limited, and the production and marketing are not boosted. Therefore, the installation of the plant has been on the low side of 70%. At present, the Jilin chemical fiber acrylic fiber plant starts to maintain 50%, and the output of the acrylonitrile plant in Daqing Petrochemical Company is lower than 90%.

Fushun Petrochemical polyacrylonitrile plant has not yet had the restart time plan; Sinopec's Anqing Petrochemical polyacrylonitrile plant has reduced its load from 80%~90% in July, but the load of the polyacrylonitrile plant in Qilu Petrochemical Company is lower than 80%. At the same time, the Shanghai Petrochemical polyacrylonitrile plant plans to reduce production by 3000 tons in December, and the load drops.

Therefore, it can be seen from the general that the acrylic fiber market unit starts to run in low position and has limited support for the demand for acrylonitrile raw materials.

In the ABS market, due to poor terminal demand, businesses are cautious in operation, purchasing on the downstream is mainly based on demand, domestic mainstream manufacturers are sluggish, and installation starts running low, but overall inventory is low.

At present, the LG Yongxing ABS plant in eastern China continues to decline, less than 6. The load of Ningbo's Taiwan chemical plant is 7 to ~8; Zhenjiang's Chi Mei and Guo Heng's load is 6 to ~7; Changzhou new lake device continues to be overhauled; Tianjin Dagu's annual output of 400 thousand tons starts 3~4.

In Northeast China, Jilin petrochemical ABS old plant started normal, with an annual output of 200 thousand tons, the new plant started less than 70%; Daqing petrochemical ABS plant started normal; the Liaoning Tong chemical (Panjin ethylene) plant started less than 4.

Therefore, the ABS market is not good enough to boost, the difficulty of plant start-up is greatly increased, and the acrylonitrile raw material digestibility is low, so it is difficult to pull up.

Demand.

At the same time, another acrylonitrile main downstream market acrylamide market, although in recent years, the plant capacity expansion still exists, the total production capacity now or around 750 thousand tons / year, but due to the demand side did not increase significantly, the short-term overcapacity pressure is still larger, at present, the industry load is between 5 and 7, and it is difficult to form support for acrylonitrile raw materials, and mostly purchase raw materials on demand. Therefore, the digestion of acrylonitrile spot stock is relatively slow, and the mood of replenishment is still very cautious, so it is difficult to push up the low price of acrylonitrile.

And relatively weak demand, domestic acrylonitrile supply is relatively stable, slow down by the spot digestion, manufacturers still have a large pressure on production and marketing, but manufacturers do not have clear measures to limit production and price protection. In addition to the three low lines of northeast Jilin petrochemical, 8 of which become ~9 starts, other main manufacturers are running 100%, the industry starts around 85%, and external supply is sufficient, and Anqing Petrochemical annual production of 130 thousand tons of new acrylonitrile plant will be put into operation at the end of the year, which will also give the market more bad pressure.

In the import market, port spot stock is still higher.

There is still some pressure to cash in. Meanwhile, the offshore spot supply of the external market is ample, which still brings bad factors to the domestic market.