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Soochow Futures: PTA Stalemate, Maintain Concussion Trend

2012/2/27 10:32:00 7

Last Friday

PTA futures

Lighten up.

The main contract TA1205 opened at 8940, and opened 40 points higher. The highest overhang in the intraday 9000 fell back to a concussion, closing at 46, closing at 8946, holding 35 thousand hands down to 330 thousand hands, and trading volume was 83 (-40) million.

From the post office position, TA1205 contract Yongan more single increased 8738 to 27303 hands, Haitong futures empty single warehouse reduced 1425 to 8944 hands.

From the perspective of the position structure, the net position of the top 20 positions is 21562 (+5470).

In February 24th, the PTA registered warehouse receipt was 3566, with a decrease of 0 pieces, with an effective forecast of 379 and a total of 3945 pieces (19 thousand and 700 tons PTA).

International oil prices, Iran nuclear report and rising consumer confidence in the United States and other factors, February 24th

New York Mercantile Exchange

(NYMEX) light crude oil futures delivered in April

Rise in price

1.94 dollars or 1.8% to 109.77 dollars per barrel, London ICE exchange Brent crude oil futures contract price rose 1.85 U.S. dollars or 1.5% to 125.47 U.S. dollars / barrel in April.

The upstream market price of naphtha is 1067 (+3) US dollars / ton CFR Japan, MX spot price is 1398 (+13) USD / ton FOB Korea, Asia PX spot price is 1640 (+13) USD / ton FOB Korea, 1652 (+10) USD / ton CFR China, PTA dynamic guaranteed price is 9301 yuan / ton.

The profit margin of PX theory is US $267 / ton.

PTA spot market fell slightly by futures.

The spot price of PTA in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 8930 yuan (-50) yuan / ton, and the price of Taiwan's PTA produced in the outer market is 1187 (-0) dollars / ton, which is equivalent to RMB 9389 yuan / ton.

Downstream market polyester polyester products prices fell 50-100 yuan / ton.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang mainstream factory polyester production and marketing continued weak, most of the 6-8.

In the terminal market, the total volume of China Textile City in February 23rd was 332 (-9) million meters, and the filament fabric was 2 million 870 thousand meters, and the short fiber cloth was 450 thousand meters, of which cotton cloth was 110 thousand meters, TC cloth was about 70 thousand meters, TR cloth 130 thousand meters, and cotton 120 thousand meters.

The technical side is hindered on the 20 day moving average.

Summary: last week, five PTA futures rebounded, but the 9000 yuan barrier was blocked.

From the market trend, PTA main contract price around 9000 yuan pass narrow oscillation, in the dilemma, the long and short stalemate.

Since last Thursday's abnormal volume, the top 20 net long positions have increased significantly, and the Zhejiang Department seat funds have more willingness to do more.

From a macro perspective, the Greek rescue agreement has eased short-term worries, the US consumer confidence in February.

Index continues to walk well

。

At the weekend meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 group in Mexico City, it is expected that countries will agree to help IMF increase capital.

Japan has considered investing $50 billion in IMF to deal with the European debt crisis, and the market risk appetite has further improved.

The PTA industry faces many fundamental stalemate and serious differences.

The Iran nuclear issue has further intensified its contradictions with western countries. The geopolitical risk has stimulated the international oil price to show the trend of the strong Heng Qiang. It has not ruled out a record high, supporting the cost of downstream energy and chemical products more and more strongly.

In addition to the high cost, PX also pushed up prices again due to tight supply and strong demand. Japanese and Korean manufacturers significantly increased their PX quotations in March, raising PTA production costs and supporting costs.

Domestic PTA producers in February contract price settlement price tough high knot, the future limit production insurance price action increased.

Although the terminal textile start-up rate has returned to normal level, the actual demand recovery is slow. Textile enterprises generally reflect that the order is scarce. Polyester polyester plant production and marketing rate is still in the doldrums, and the inventory pressure is still very large.

The market expects that textile demand will not start until mid March. Under the pressure of inventory, polyester staple fiber market will remain weak.

The PTA market is in the game between strong cost support and weak supply and demand, and the consolidation pattern will continue. It is difficult to have a large trend market.

The latter is concerned about the progress of stock and downstream polyester factories. If it is better than expected, it will hit 9246 higher before cost and build a double headed trend.

Operation strategy adhered to the idea of short and multi hollow.