In 2011, "Hot Money" &Nbsp; Outflow $3 Billion.

"Hot money" may not flow out.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, it has been affected by the international situation.

Professor Li Youhuan, director of the Guangdong Provincial Social Sciences Comprehensive Development Research Center and professor of "hot money", pointed out that the net amount of "hot money" estimated in 2011 was lower than that in 2010, because the phenomenon of accelerated outflow or even net outflow of hot money appeared in the fourth quarter of last year.

"Mainly

In this regard, Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, believes that the amount of hot money estimated by the residual method can only reflect changes in the balance sheet of the central bank, but it is impossible to know whether the foreign capital flows out of China's territory.

"It is possible that the expectation of depreciation will be enhanced because residents and enterprises will reduce foreign exchange settlement, which will result in a greater concentration of foreign exchange on private holdings, but that does not mean that funds are flowing outwards."

He said.

According to the report issued by the foreign exchange bureau, due to the impact of sovereign debt problems in the United States and Europe, since the end of last September, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in Hongkong has shifted from strong to weak in the mainland, and at the same time, there is a certain degree of depreciation expectation.

Domestic enterprises and individuals have also begun to adjust their original financial operations voluntarily or passively, such as the settlement of foreign exchange as soon as possible to increase foreign exchange deposits.

Foreign exchange bureau released data show that in 2011 1~9 months, non

Capital cross-border flows are intensifying.

Cao Yuanzheng pointed out that the estimated net inflow of "hot money" includes two parts of capital inflow from 1~9 last year and the outflow of funds after September. However, since the net entry volume at the end of the year is the time point data, it is difficult to present the dynamic situation of cross-border capital entry and exit.

"Before and after September, the cross-border capital flows in and out, resulting in the" residual law "calculated the annual hot money amount is not very large, but it does not mean that the scale of cross-border capital flows is decreasing.

Cao Yuanzheng said.

Foreign exchange data show that in the first three quarters of 2011, the total scale of cross-border capital movements reached US $1 trillion and 920 billion, an increase of 34% over the same period last year.

The ratio of GDP to the corresponding period was 39%, an increase of 5 percentage points over the whole year of 2010, and the total amount of cross-border capital flows continued to increase.

At the national foreign exchange management conference held in January this year, the foreign exchange bureau also made clear that the monitoring and management of cross-border capital flows should be strengthened in 2012 to build a cross-border capital flow impact.

For this year's cross-border capital flows, Cao Yuanzheng believes that China will once again become the destination of the world's capital flows.

In the process of gradual easing of the seriousness of the European debt problem, this will effectively stabilize the international market. Under a stable external environment, China's economic growth rate and investment growth rate are relatively high, which will once again attract the return of capital.

The foreign exchange bureau report also pointed out that in the future, the fundamentals of supporting China's balance of payments surplus still exist, but because of the international economy.

"At present, the number of hot money in real estate in China is huge, but because of the price of real estate, it is difficult to get away from it at the same time.

Coupled with the unrest in the international market and the instability of the international economic and financial situation, the fluctuation of cross-border flows in 2012 is expected to intensify. "

Li Youhuan said, "but RMB can not be freely convertible. Our country has great restrictions on the abnormal cross-border movement of funds, and more importantly, the market expects that China's real estate will probably be adjusted, and the market for speculation will also be rational.

Therefore, under the new financial and economic situation at home and abroad, some offshore funds may be conservative.