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Domestic Factors Dominated &Nbsp; Cotton City Continued To Rebound.

2012/1/19 10:04:00 37

Cotton market in 2011 is more obvious is that the fundamentals are bad to the end, so that in the end only when other factors can push forward, otherwise, the daily volume of the main contract tens of thousands of volume.

These factors are mainly peripheral.

market

The European debt crisis and domestic macro policies.

industry

The adjustment of policy is expected.

The European debt crisis is a catalyst in the price rise and fall of cotton market.

In other words, the original cotton market will not drop very deep, and its price will drop to 19800 yuan in the next period, and the spot price will be on the 19000 yuan mark.

In the worsening European debt crisis, the cotton market has also broken away from its reasonable price operation range, and the strong and weak cotton pattern has changed to internal strength and external weakness.

at present

cotton

The trend is relatively strong, both futures and spot are continuing to rebound.

Even years ago, S & P lowered the credit rating of 9 countries in the euro area, and lowered the EFSF credit rating on the 16 day, and the domestic and foreign cotton prices were not affected by it.

In addition, affected by the continuous reduction of inventory, domestic and international copper prices are rising rapidly, leading to the rise of other commodities, and the cotton market is also divided into a "cup of soup".

In the past, the market "heard" the European debt crisis, "face" change, why this rush? In a word, it is still due to the domestic macroeconomic data boost and the expected impact of regulatory policies.

Recently released economic data show that in 2011, GDP growth rate dropped to near 9.2%, of which four quarter GDP growth rate hit a low level in the past two years.

China's export growth slowed down, obvious signs of hot money outflow, and monetary policy trimming expectations are gradually strengthening. Therefore, there are agencies predicting the possibility of reducing the deposit rate before the Spring Festival.

And in response to the goal of "growth insurance" in 2012, the adjustment policy will become more obvious after the economic downturn is expected to increase.

Therefore, it shows the positive side of macroeconomic regulation and control, which is also good for cotton market.

But facing the expectation of RMB appreciation, we are worried about domestic textiles.

clothing

The export situation will be grim.

Although China's textile and clothing exports continued to grow in 2011, exports to the EU grew by 26%.

But the reality is that because of the lag effect, the growth rate of textile and clothing exports will slow down next year, even lower than 2011 (excluding price factors, and the actual export growth rate of textile and clothing in 2011 also slowed down compared with the same period last year).

On the whole, the environment of the cotton industry has improved.

The state's storage capacity also reached 1/3 of cotton production in 2011/2012.

According to the probability of reducing cotton planting area in 2012/2013, the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be further alleviated, and cotton prices will rebound under the demand of replenishment of downstream banks.