The Domestic Cotton Market Will Remain Stable In 2011.

Speaking of the first half of this year cotton Quotes, most of the industry is in fear, in the ups and downs of the cotton market has entered a new year. "There is a reserve policy for the bottom, and it is expected that the domestic cotton market in 2011 will remain stable overall." Gao Fang, executive vice president and Secretary General of the China Cotton Association, held in September 15th the cotton situation analysis conference held in September 15th, said that the cotton planting area increased this year, and the harvest is in sight. The textile situation is grim, and the international market supply is slightly larger than the demand.

Cotton production: a bumper harvest is in sight

It has become an indisputable fact that the increase of cotton farmers' income in 2010. This direct impact is: this year cotton growers cotton planting enthusiasm to improve, the national cotton planting area increased, plus cotton planting since the suitable climate, this year's cotton harvest seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Gao Fang said that according to the China Cotton Association's monitoring, in 2011, the cotton planting area was 80 million 180 thousand mu, which increased by 4.1% compared to the same caliber, and the total output of cotton was estimated to be 7 million 380 thousand tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.

From the late August to the end of August, the climate suitability of cotton is suitable. The yield per unit area is higher than that of last year, and the trend is a good year. cotton The growth condition is good, the climate condition of the Yangtze River Basin is slightly worse, and the yield of some cotton areas has declined. From August to early September, a long period of rain and light in some parts of the Yellow River and Yangtze River Basin had a certain effect on cotton yield and quality, and the yield was expected to decline compared with the earlier stage.

In line with the Cotton Association's views, there is also the Department of crop management of the Ministry of agriculture's rural economic research center and the Ministry of agriculture. Du Min, director of the rural economic research center of the Ministry of agriculture, said that the country's seed cotton yield is 265 kilograms, of which Xinjiang is the highest, the Yangtze River and the Yellow River are slightly low, about 230 kilograms, and the total output of cotton is estimated to be 7 million 120 thousand tons.

"Cotton production area and unit production all showed growth this year. trend If there is no major change in the late weather, the total production will be estimated at around 7 million tons. Long Xi, deputy director of the Department of crop management, Ministry of agriculture.

Textile industry: complicated situation

When supply is no longer suspense, demand becomes the key factor to determine the trend of the cotton market. The textile industry is in a complex environment due to the changing international economic situation, the rising prices of all kinds of materials and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

Gao Fang analysis, the problems facing the textile industry in 2011 are still very complicated, and the rapid growth of the industry is difficult. First of all, domestic inflation pressure is still relatively large, monetary tightening policy will not change temporarily, financing difficulties and cost increase; secondly, the international economic situation is changing, demand recovery is unstable, RMB exchange rate appreciation, international competitiveness weakened, export uncertainty, and secondly, labor, raw materials, energy and other kinds of material prices rise, the cost is too fast. enterprise It's hard to digest.

As the downstream products of cotton, the trend of cotton yarn and cotton cloth has a direct impact on the market situation of cotton. Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, predicts that the cotton yarn and cotton market will improve in the second half of the year. At the beginning of August, after the meeting of the temporary purchasing and storage working conference, the confidence of the industry increased. After August 25th, the price of cotton yarn and cloth increased. Judging from the current market situation, it is expected that prices will be relatively stable in September and October, but the uncertainty is greater after November.

From the perspective of consumption demand, China's textile products 70% rely on the international market, and the textile export situation has become the weathervane of the textile market trend. "The export situation in the second half of this year is not optimistic." Zhang Xinmin Road, first of all, textile exports in the second half of this year face many difficulties, such as rising labor costs, appreciation of the renminbi, changes in the trade environment, increase in financing costs of enterprises, and the trend of international market warming. Secondly, the textile industry is facing the pressure of transformation and upgrading. Zhang Xinmin, vice president of the China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, said that the survey found that 80% of the enterprises had insufficient operating rate, and more SMEs were closed down. The transfer trend of orders is increasing and irreversible. The main reason is the rising cost, and the transformation and upgrading of industries is the general trend.

Cotton Market Outlook: smooth operation

The supply of international market has increased sharply, and demand has changed little. Supply is slightly larger than demand. Under the above factors, cotton prices in 2011 are difficult to go up.

Gao Fang believes that the growth rate of the textile industry in the new year will continue to slow down. Cotton demand will remain at the level of the previous year. Under the support of purchasing and storage policy, the domestic cotton market in 2011 will remain stable overall.

Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and trade division of the national development and Reform Commission, said the new year domestic The cotton harvest is good, the international economic situation is not optimistic, there will be no obvious increase in demand, and there will be a downward pressure on the new cotton listed prices.

Under the current situation, Shi Jinkai, general manager of China Cotton Group Co., Ltd. believes that the cotton market will continue to maintain a stalemate in the near future. Before the end of the year, the cotton market will have a staged market. After the purchase and storage, the cotton market will be completely dominated by the market. At the same time, he said that if the price of cotton is below the price of storage and purchase, the cotton market will be in short supply. If the cotton price is above the cost, the market will be in short supply.

Bian Shenggui, Secretary General of Shandong Cotton Association, believes that cotton prices will run smoothly in 2011, and cotton purchase price is expected to be between 4.2 yuan and 5 yuan / Jin, with an average price of 4.6 yuan / kg. The lint price is between 18300 yuan and 20300 yuan / ton, and the processing cost of enterprises is about 19500 yuan / ton.