RMB Will Take A Long Uphill Road.

The 4 trading day after the small dragon boat festival, RMB pairs. US dollar exchange rate After a two consecutive trading day, the central parity rate hit a new high of exchange rate reform, which was slightly down by the rebound of the US dollar.

Analysts expect that in the long run, the trend of RMB exchange rate appreciation is basically determined. However, influenced by the fluctuation of international foreign exchange market, it will show strong two-way floating characteristics.

On the four trading day last week, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar announced by the China foreign exchange trading center rose two trading days, two trading days down, and the weekly wave amplitude was 58 basis points. The first two trading days after the small dragon boat festival, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has hit a new high since 2005, and it first broke the 6.48 pass on Wednesday. The next two Trading day The central parity of RMB against the US dollar has dropped 58 basis points, down to 6.4853 last Friday.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday showed that China's cumulative trade surplus in the first 5 months of this year was $22 billion 970 million, down 35.1% from the same period last year. Among them, the trade surplus in May was 13 billion 50 million US dollars, while the surplus increased further than in April, but it was lower than expected.

Analysts pointed out that the growth trend of trade surplus in the past 5 months shows that China's annual trade surplus will decrease overall and China's trade balance will further improve, which will help to reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation. On the other hand, in view of the fact that China's economy will still maintain rapid growth and face strong inflationary pressure, the trend of long-term appreciation of RMB is basically clear.

In the international market, at the beginning of last week, it was weak. economic data The US dollar index fell again after a brief rebound in the previous period and hit a low point in more than a month. But then, as the market worried about the euro zone debt problems and the economic recovery of the euro area countries, and the US budget deficit in May was lower than expected, the euro fell and the US dollar went up. Analysts at the Bank of China pointed out that a series of weak economic data and employment data released recently by the United States consolidated the market's expectation that the US interest rate would remain at a historic low for a longer time. On the whole, the US dollar's medium-term trend is not optimistic. It is expected that the US dollar index will continue to fall after a slight rebound.

Since the central bank announced the further reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in June 19, 2010, the RMB has appreciated slightly, the two-way floating characteristics are obvious, and the exchange rate elasticity has been significantly enhanced. In the middle price, the appreciation of RMB has exceeded 5% since June 19, 2010. This year alone, the renminbi has appreciated by more than 2%.