China'S Economy Is On The Track Of Independent Growth And It Is Difficult To Appear "Malignant Inflation"

In 2010, the "economic report card" of China's economy was officially announced on 20 th.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, following the growth rate of China's economy in 2009, 9.2% increased by 10.3% in 2010, setting a new high since the international financial crisis.

Even more gratifying is that before

"This means that the Chinese economy has avoided the possibility of overheating and avoided the" two bottom finding "that we are worried about and is going to pition and evolve towards the normal track of self growth.

Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of statistics, said at a news conference.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out that in 2009

During the "11th Five-Year" period, China's economy achieved an average annual growth rate of more than 11%, while the average annual rise rate of prices was 2.9%.

Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, pointed out that such economic growth and price increase are among the best arrangements in the past five years' plan (Planning).

What is the trend of the economy in 2011? Tang Jianwei, a macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications (601328) Financial Research Center, said that with the gradual withdrawal of stimulus policies, the acceleration of China's economic growth in 2010 was mainly due to the recovery of endogenous dynamism such as consumption.

In 2011, economic growth will start steadily. If consumption keeps steady growth and investment and export growth may fall, the growth rate may show a trend of "low before and after high", and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 9.8%.

"Hyperinflation" is hard to emerge.

If the economy is on the road of steady growth, it is a "joy". The larger inflation pressure is a "worry" of the current economy.

As expected, the CPI, which has been rising all the way, slowed slightly after the "break five" in November 2010, and dropped to 4.6% in December, but this is not enough to dispel worries about inflationary pressure.

"Efforts made by governments at all levels to control prices have achieved remarkable results in December.

However, the pressure of price rise in 2011 does exist.

Ma Jiantang said that in 2011 prices had both upward pressure and favorable conditions for regulation.

Data show that in December 2010 CPI year-on-year fall, mainly from vegetable prices and other food prices fell.

After the central bank continued to raise the deposit reserve ratio and raise interest rates, the growth rate of money supply declined significantly.

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, admitted that the US quantitative easing monetary policy has led to soaring international commodity prices and hot money flows, which has increased China's import inflationary pressure.

In addition, domestic wages are rising, resource prices are rising, and the pressure of cost driven price increases is not small.

"Controlling inflation pressure is the most urgent problem at hand."

Zhang Xiaojing, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that in 2011, the first thing we should do is to control the total amount of money and credit.

In addition, resource price reform should be gradual and capital controls should be strengthened.

The elimination of worries about economic slowdown will not rule out the possibility of tightening policy in the future beyond market expectations.

Tang Jianwei said that in the first half of this year, the deposit reserve ratio, interest rate and exchange rate "three rate" may be hand in hand to control inflation.

At the Fifth Plenary Session of the State Council, when deploying the first quarter of this year, we put the "ensuring that the general price level is basically stable" in the first place.

Yao Jingyuan said that at present, there are two material conditions to decide that there will be no vicious inflation: first, the grain harvest has been continuously for seven consecutive years, and the price of grain is stable. The two is the basic balance between supply and demand in the industrial market, and the surplus capacity in some industries.

"We have the capability, the condition and the confidence to control prices in the expected target in 2011."

Ma Jiantang emphasized.

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"Turning mode" expects substantive breakthrough

If the price problem is the "near worry" of the current Chinese economy, then the pformation of the mode of economic development is "foresight".

Especially in the year 12th Five-Year, how to achieve substantive breakthroughs in structural adjustment and pfer is related to the long-term development of China's economy.

China's economic restructuring in 2010 has made positive progress: the growth rate of fixed assets investment has dropped by 6.2 percentage points over the previous year, and the rate of decline has been rare in recent years. The trade surplus has been shrinking for second consecutive years, down by 6.4% in 2010, and the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has exceeded 92%.

In addition, the high-tech industry grew by 16.6% in 2010, and the rate of increase was 8.9 percentage points faster than the previous year.

However, compared with people's expectations of China's economy, structural adjustment and pformation still need substantial breakthroughs.

In the formulation of the "12th Five-Year plan" goal, some places still ignore the resource and environmental carrying capacity, and still propose the high growth target of doubling the total economic volume in five years.

"This year, we should keep the speed steady.

Only in this way can we have the energy to grasp structural adjustment and control the general price level.

Otherwise, prices will not be controlled. Structural adjustment will also delay important opportunities.

Yao Jingyuan said.

"Structural adjustment is not effective in the short term, but in the long run.

Active fiscal policy should give full play to the role of adjusting the structure and pferring mode, accelerate the reform of income distribution, increase R & D investment, vigorously develop strategic emerging industries and the third industry, and strictly implement energy conservation and emission reduction, which is the direction of future development.

Zhu Baoliang emphasized.

As Ma Jiantang stressed at the end of the press conference, 2011 will be a year of change and change. I believe 2011 will see the hope of change and harvest the fruits of change.