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The Key To Macroeconomic Regulation Is To Give Stable Expectations.

2010/12/15 10:22:00 58

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economic work

The main task of next year's economic work is to strengthen and improve.

Macro-control

To maintain stable and healthy operation of the economy.

In the current context, China's macroeconomic regulation and control on the one hand refers to the government's foundation.

G D P

The dynamic overall economic indicators such as employment and prices should be adjusted by means of financial, financial and other economic means as well as necessary legal and administrative means. The short-term balance can also be called "economic adjustment". On the other hand, it is the use of the above hand to optimize the economic structure from a long-term objective.

The outbreak of the international financial crisis has seriously impacted China's economy. China has adopted emergency macro measures to protect people's livelihood and maintain stability. At the same time, the financial crisis has brought about profound and complicated changes in the world economic structure, and structural adjustment in China's social and economic development is more urgent.

Inevitably, there is a difference between the goal of short-term regulation of macroeconomic regulation and long-term structural adjustment goals. Therefore, macroeconomic regulation and control has encountered a very complicated situation.

The author believes that structural adjustment is related to the fundamental interests of the state and the nation and must be resolutely carried out without delay.

The total adjustment for short-term dynamic indicators is more practical and political.

Therefore, if there is a "dilemma" situation, more calm, "quiet" than the "move" may be better.

Since Adam Simy put forward the "invisible hand" theory, over the past 150 years, several generations of western economists have proved that under the assumption of certain assumptions, the power of the market mechanism can make the social economy achieve a general equilibrium.

Now that China has chosen the path of market economy, the first thing to consider is not how to regulate the market, but how to satisfy the hypothesis of realizing general equilibrium, and try to let market forces promote the balance of production and marketing.

When "garlic is tough," as long as the farmers do not require the garlic to grow garlic, they do not want to eat "garlic chops" to eat "sweet and sour spareribs". Garlic prices should soon return to a market equilibrium.

Of course, economists also prove that in real life, it is difficult to satisfy the assumptions of achieving general equilibrium, so when the market fails, it needs government intervention.

But history has also proved that the government's intervention policies and measures have advantages and disadvantages, and can not lead the economy to the best equilibrium.

Therefore, in the extreme situation like the international financial crisis, the government's "govern by doing nothing" may be a better choice in the face of the normal fluctuation of economic operation.

For example, during the period after World War II, the US government constantly regulated the economy in accordance with the theory of Keynes, winning the golden age of economic development for 20 years, but also planted the seeds of stagflation in the 70s of last century.

During the Reagan administration in the 80s of last century, relative policy of "govern by doing nothing" was adopted, and the US economy was able to get out of stagflation.

The central economic work conference called for a steady and healthy operation of the economy.

In China, an important condition for the smooth and healthy operation of the economy is that producers and consumers can have stable expectations for the future macro environment including government policies, so as to rationally arrange production and consumption.

Despite the uncertainties and uncertainties, the world economy is expected to continue to grow in the coming year.

The Chinese economy, which is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization, has strong potential for development. At present, though facing the inflationary pressure mainly based on food prices, as the people's Daily reported, many factors decide that it will not happen.

Overall inflation

There is no need to worry too much.

In the absence of accidents, China's economy is expected to encounter a stable and healthy environment. The corresponding macro-control measures should be more stable and prudent, giving producers and consumers a relatively stable expectation.