"Knife Lick" Blood Speculators "Xinding" On Xinjiang Cotton City

Although it is not yet clear that hot money has been involved in cotton frying, the speculator of "knife biting blood" has been bitten.

As early as the beginning of 2010, some people and experts asserted that Xinjiang cotton, known as "Platinum", will become the next target of speculation.

As new cotton goes on sale, the size of Xinjiang is gathered.

After entering September, the local cotton traders called "self-employed" have been gathering in Akesu and surrounding cotton areas, waiting for the purchase of new cotton, with a large number of people living in Wenzhou.

According to the local main cotton enterprises to the author estimates, in 2010 only to Akesu to find opportunities for "self-employed" more than 200 people, far more than in previous years, and to the surrounding cotton producing counties and cities may be more self-employed.

Tianshan cotton industry is one of the largest cotton processing enterprises in Akesu.

At present, the company's 3 production lines, apart from one for personal use, the remaining two are for a textile enterprise in Dezhou, Shandong, and more than 20 self employed individuals from Wenzhou.

There are quite a few people in Wenzhou like other cotton ginning companies who have leased the production line.

According to Fang Hongyan, general manager of Akesu Tianshan cotton industry, as early as June 2010, most of the Wenzhou bosses had "scheduled" cotton in the local cotton fields, and promised cotton growers to buy cotton at a higher price than the market price. Meanwhile, the production line was leased to local cotton processing enterprises ahead of schedule to prepare for the autumn acquisition and processing of cotton.

There are nearly 50 cotton processing enterprises in Akesu, most of which were built by businessmen from Wenzhou in Xinjiang around 2003.

Chen Shiwen, executive vice president of the Wenzhou chamber of Commerce in Akesu, told the author that when the cotton price began to rise in February 2010, the "self-employed" came to Akesu to buy cotton and ready to hoard, but at that time, the cotton of all enterprises had basically been sold out, and most of the Wenzhou villagers returned empty handed.

Chen Shiwen said that because of this trend, the rumors of "billions of hot money moving to Xinjiang cotton fry" at the beginning of the year were noisy.

According to some cotton merchants in Wenzhou, although the Wenzhou people who are preparing for the cotton business do not have much money in their hands, they are only 23 million yuan per person. But when they combine themselves, they can quickly gather tens of millions of yuan or even hundreds of millions of yuan in purchasing funds.

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"This is likely to happen 6 years ago."

Chen Shiwen analysis said that in the autumn of 2003, in order to grab resources, foreign acquisition enterprises and cotton traders in Xinjiang competed to raise prices to compete for relatively limited cotton resources. When the purchase price of cotton was the highest, they were once fired to 10 yuan per kilogram.

Worried about the lack of cotton in the future, local businesses had to bite their teeth and play cards.

However, only 3 months later, domestic cotton prices plummeted, so the main cotton enterprises were generally losing money. Many cotton merchants in Xinjiang invested and built factories were also unable to escape. Most of the funds were trapped. Many people have not yet recovered all their investment so far, so they have to continue to "bother" for cotton. "Wenzhou"

Chen Shiwen said, "if we had planned to make a profit, we would have gone to business."

Over the next 3 years, cotton and cotton industry in Xinjiang and even the rest of the country experienced a "hard sell" dilemma, and the whole industry suffered heavy losses.

The fact seems to confirm some of the concerns of Xinjiang's cotton business.

After September 20, 2010, in the southern part of Xinjiang, where cotton was opened earlier, the scale of cotton reached 11 yuan per kilogram, exceeding the highest price in history.

I contacted some of the Xinjiang cotton enterprises said that although cotton prices have made them feel afraid, but if we are grabbing resources, we must follow up, or else idle factories, equipment and personnel are also losing money.

Whether there will be "hot money" in 2010, Du Min, a researcher at the Ministry of agriculture's Rural Economic Research Center, believes that the main reason for the sharp rise in cotton prices in 2010 is the imbalance between supply and demand. The factors of speculation are not big. "Even if the cotton price is high, if the domestic textile enterprises are unable to bear it, they will not be able to take the last stick of" drum beating and spreading flowers ".

Therefore, as long as the State takes measures to control the price of domestic cotton futures, it is hard to raise big waves in the spot market.

In contrast with Du min's views, some people in the industry believe that the growing gap in China's cotton industry has provided favorable conditions for the speculation of cotton prices.

After just experiencing the "stir fried garlic" storm, Xu Xiangyang, director of the economic crops Station of Heze Agricultural Bureau of Shandong, said: "shortage of supply and demand" and "price rise" are the most basic conditions for agricultural products to be hyped in recent years, and now cotton is also available.

Some cotton traders in Wenzhou are rather dissatisfied with their "speculators" image.

Chen Shiwen said that private capital intervention in the field of cotton purchase has neither illegal operation nor hoarding. Therefore, it is unfair to interpret the investment behavior of Wen Shang with "speculation".

Whether the hot money is really involved in cotton speculation remains to be seen, but only such rumors will cause market volatility and push up cotton prices.

For example, after the Spring Festival in 2010, there were 10 billion yuan of Zhejiang folk funds to withdraw from the Shanxi coal mine and the domestic real estate market to fight for the cotton market in Xinjiang. Although this was not in conformity with the fact, it was rumored that the domestic cotton price was rising.

Since September 2010, in just 40 days, domestic cotton futures prices have risen by more than 6000 yuan per ton.

Some people in the industry say that there is no hype about hot money. It is hard to see such a situation.

Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing orient Agricultural Consulting Co. Ltd., thinks that money is profitable and it is hard to put an end to its hype about the potential market of cotton.

The way to cut off its hype is to strengthen the supply of cotton and other related products and reduce the opportunity for capital speculation.

At the same time, it is necessary to make the amount of money supply to meet economic growth, avoid excessive currency nowhere investment, and seek opportunities everywhere.

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Article: data distortion aggravates the difficulty of cotton market regulation.

China's cotton supply and demand data "false" has a long history.

In recent years, not only the statistics of total cotton output are not in conformity with the reality, but even the actual planting area in various places is difficult to understand.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, in 2009, the area of cotton in China was 74 million 280 thousand mu, while the data of the warning system of the China Cotton Association showed that it was 77 million 180 thousand mu.

As for cotton production, the results of consultation with government departments are generally higher than the 6 million 377 thousand tons announced by the National Bureau of statistics.

In Xinjiang, the largest cotton producing area in China, the "help field" is one of the main reasons for the false statistics of output.

The so-called "help fields" is cultivated land that has not been reported but actually planted cotton.

According to Shao Yu, former director of agriculture in Manasi County, Xinjiang, the number of cotton per unit area often means the ability of cadres to work in the main cotton producing areas. In order to achieve more political achievements, it is very common to rely on "help fields" to increase yields.

Shao Yu said that in order to prevent the high yield per unit area from being suspected, the production of "help Tian" can not be included in the local total production. There must be some concealment of output.

Under such circumstances, the credibility of Xinjiang's cotton production statistics is doubtful.

After several successive cotton selling difficulties, Xinjiang made a decision to stabilize the cotton area. Since 2008, the cotton planting area has been stabilized at about 20 million mu, and the output has been controlled at 2 million to 2 million 500 thousand tons, so as to free more land for adjusting the agricultural structure and developing facilities agriculture, grain production and fruit and forest industry.

At the same time, the Autonomous Region Party committee and the people's government require all cotton producing areas to avoid expanding the cotton area blindly, and we can no longer rely on "help fields" to raise the yield per unit area.

Because of the difficulties in achieving the goal of compressing the cotton field area, the actual result is contrary to the "compressed and stable" cotton area in the autonomous region.

Therefore, most county and township governments still have concerns about reporting the actual area of cotton fields.

Since 2010, farmers in Xinjiang have been able to grow cotton subsidies of 15 yuan per mu, although this can reduce the number of grasslands to cover the cotton fields to a certain extent, but it is still unable to solve the problem of unclear output.

In addition, according to a cadre of the Agriculture Department of the autonomous region, in the past few years, many units such as troops stationed in Xinjiang have a large number of cotton fields, which are not included in the cotton fields in Xinjiang.

According to people familiar with the matter, in recent years, there are not less than ten million mu of illegally reclaimed wasteland in Xinjiang. Most of these "black lands" are planted on cotton and can not be included in the statistics department's vision.

As early as December 2009, Shi Jianwei, vice president of the China Cotton Association, once said that the problem of distortion of cotton production data in Xinjiang has been very serious. According to the total amount of cotton produced by the Urumqi Railway Administration, the output of cotton in Xinjiang has been 2 million 800 thousand tons in 7 years compared with the statistics of relevant departments since 2002.

There is a discrepancy between the actual output of cotton and the statistical data. There is also a big discrepancy between the actual demand of cotton in China and the statistical data.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in 2009, the yarn production in China was nearly 24 million tons.

Over the same period, the chemical fiber that our country can provide to the textile industry for spinning does not exceed 9 million 500 thousand tons, and cotton output is only 9 million tons of imported cotton. According to this calculation, the total raw material of spinning is not more than 18 million 500 thousand tons.

Zhu Lanfen, vice president of China Cotton Textile Association, told the author: "18 million 500 thousand tons of fiber can spin 24 million tons of cotton yarn, unless water is added. From this point of view, cotton production is not a problem, that is, the statistics of yarn production is too high."

The problem of distortion of statistical data is also puzzling the international cotton traders.

On May 2010, at the China Cotton Industry Development Summit held in Sanya, Hainan, Louis, chairman of the board of directors of the Beijing Trade Co., Ltd., Chen Tao, said that the authority of the Chinese government statistics department had been questioned on the cotton production and demand data. The USDA had announced it with the data of the National Bureau of statistics for a long time, but it is no longer available now.

He complained that "yarn output and cotton output all come from the National Bureau of statistics. The data gap is so big. Why can the departments responsible for industrial statistics and departments responsible for agricultural statistics not touch first? What is the problem?"

Domestic cotton production and demand data "distortion", but also make the decision-making and regulatory departments headache.

Zhu Lanfen, for example, said that because of the discrepancy between data and facts, in early 2010, when the implementation of the policy of "importing cotton imports" was lacking, the state issued relatively limited import quotas, which led to the shortage of domestic cotton supply.

Although the number of quotas issued by the NDRC was increased after May, there were not many cotton resources available in the international market at this time.

Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and Trade Department of the State Development and Reform Commission, said: the statistics of production and demand are untrue, which has been the biggest factor that has troubled the country's regulation of the cotton market.

Due to the lack of authoritative and efficient information collection and comprehensive processing system for cotton production, supply and marketing, the regulatory basis of the state's cotton industry is weak, mainly because cotton production and demand statistics are not accurate enough, so it is difficult to achieve precise control.

Although the national development and Reform Commission and other departments require all localities to speed up the establishment and improvement of cotton production and cotton yarn production sampling survey and statistics system, and improve the accuracy of cotton and cotton yarn production statistics, in fact, it is no easy task to find out the supply and demand situation.

Zhang Xianbin said, "the actual output of cotton in Xinjiang can also be estimated roughly by railway outbound volume, but the output of cotton in the mainland can not be corrected at present.

In addition, it is said that the statistics of yarn output are moisture, but no one can tell clearly how much water is there.

Zhu Lanfen said that the total output of cotton is underestimated and the output of cotton yarn is high. The regulatory measures formulated by the functional departments such as the NDRC are difficult to "suit the remedy to the case", which will inevitably lead to this embarrassing situation in 2010.

In view of the fact that production and demand data are not true, she said that the government should set up an objective and accurate data statistics system and early warning system as soon as possible to ensure timely, systematic and accurate information release, reduce risks in operation and decision-making, and ensure the stable and sustainable development of China's cotton industry and textile enterprises.