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Introduction To Stock: How To Capture G Share Opportunities

2010/9/30 17:54:00 75

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The trend of G direct pfer has attracted wide attention from the market. If the price is calculated according to the theoretical deduction price, the stock will rise by 27.5% today. If it participates in the stock market from the first resumption, the investment income will be close to 40%, which is undoubtedly quite attractive under the weaker market conditions.

There is no doubt that G shares are the biggest focus of this market, but the difference in investment opportunities is great in the different stages of the G share process.


When is the best time to intervene?


The resumption pactions of individual stocks during the split share structure reform are divided into 3 stages: the board of directors has published a notice within two working days after making a resolution on the split share structure reform plan, and applied for the announcement to resume trading the next day; after the adoption of the non tradable share reform plan, the resolution of the general meeting of shareholders and the implementation plan of the split share structure reform are announced after the adoption of the interim shareholders' general meeting; meanwhile, the stock market of applicant company is resumed; and the stock price is officially circulated.


Judging from the 3 stocks that have realized the circulation of the counter value stocks, the first stage is mainly rising, the second stage performs best, and the third stage is divided.

Like the 31 tier foreman, the increase in the two stages is close to 40%, but after the listing of the shares, there has been a sharp decline. Although it has picked up recently, it still has fallen by about 6%.

The two pilot stocks of Purple River enterprises and Jinniu energy did not perform well in the first and second stages, but they performed well in the third stage of Sany.


As the number of G shares is relatively small, it is difficult to summarize the more obvious rules. But the performance of the 46 pilot companies from the two batch is quite obvious.

Statistics showed that the number of pilot stocks rose by more than 10% in the first stage, and the best performance rose by more than 30%. Only 5 of them fell, that is to say, the majority of the investors involved here were making profits.

In terms of performance, the number of households earning more than 0.3 yuan per share was 37, accounting for 80.43% of the total number of pilot stocks. In the 2004 and 2005 quarter, net profit rose 33, accounting for 71.74%, and blue chip stocks were obviously the first choice for pilot stocks.

From the perspective of company size, most of them are large capitalization companies, and more than half of them are ranked in the top 400 of the two cities.

From the perspective of the industry, leading companies in many industries are among them, such as Baosteel, CITIC Securities, Changjiang Electric Power and upper port container sets. There are also some companies that are small in scale but have unique business advantages, such as Xinhe Cheng, Xin Fu pharmaceutical and human welfare technology.


Therefore, from the best choice of profit, it is best to intervene before the first announcement of stock reform matters. For example, CITIC Securities, if intervened in June 3rd before the announcement of stock reform matters, the share price will rise by more than 30%, far higher than the 5.57% increase in the first stage.

But this kind of income needs to be realized on the basis of early judgement of whether the company can carry out the share reform.

If the judgment is wrong, there will be better investment opportunities in the first resumption trading stage.


What are the potential G shares?


Anticipation has great uncertainty, but there are still some options to choose from the relevant views on the reform of stock reform.

Recently, management has indicated that 200 to 300 of the total market capitalization of 60%-70% can start the old and new decisions and resume the IPO after the share reform is completed.

Taking account of the factors of IPO, the split share structure can not be delayed for a long time, so it is the best way to start the equity reform of the big cap company as soon as possible. The top 300 companies with the largest market value deserve more attention.

We can choose the leading companies with good fundamentals to intervene in advance to get a variety of profit opportunities in the process of the split share structure reform, such as Sinopec, China Unicom, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai airport, Pudong Development Bank, Minsheng Bank, Shanghai automobile, Guizhou Moutai, Vanke A and so on.

In fact, these stocks have been outstanding recently, which is related to the capital participation caused by the low valuation level near the 1000 point, but the potential stock reform opportunity is also an important factor.


The quality of the company is still the top priority.


Of course, in the investment strategy, whether in the early stage of intervention or in the first stage of the resumption period, we must consider the company's operational quality.

The G of the company does not represent the enhancement of its intrinsic value, but the rational return of the company's share price to its intrinsic value after the institutional risk caused by the split share structure.

After resolving the equity division, the determinants of corporate value will become more abundant and mature, not only depends on the company's performance, but also on the corporate governance structure and dividend policy.

A company without good governance structure is difficult to maintain good business continuity in a fully circulated market environment.


Dividends, as a major factor in maintaining long-term value investments in mature markets, will also play a greater role in the role of investors.

Like Baosteel's dividend commitments, it will become an important weight to maintain its market performance. According to its 3 year dividend payment commitments and current prices, the annual dividend yield of investment will be as high as 6%, which is much higher than the yield of treasury bonds. This will undoubtedly have strong attraction for investors. Baosteel will first reflect the real value of long-term investments in the domestic market.

Therefore, the stock selection in advance can not be ignored without considering the cash flow factors. The stocks in ports, airports, highways, drinks and other industries should be focused.


Besides, the factors of non tradable share reduction should also be considered.

This is mainly a look at the position of the company in the national economy and industry. The management has issued Guiding Opinions on the layout of the state-owned economy and the shareholding ratio of the industries, so as to enhance the state's ownership control over the important industries, which can largely reduce the impact of the reduction of the non tradable shares, so the risk of such stocks from the reduction is much smaller.

This provides another way to choose "share reform" stocks. Banks and energy companies should not be overlooked.


Since the market has begun to excavate some potential "share reform" stocks, the companies that are in line with the above selection ideas may have performed. At this time, we should pay attention to the valuation level of the company. If it is obviously high, even if the possibility of stock reform is large, it is not appropriate to catch up with high intervention so as to avoid being hurt by speculative capital.

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