PTA Futures Prices Suddenly Soared And Led The Commodity Market.

In August 16th, the price of PTA futures suddenly soared and led the commodity market. At the same time, positions and pactions reached a record high, adding 118 thousand more stocks a day, an increase of about 50% compared with the previous day.

The author thinks that

Standing at the current time point, the early stage long after rising continuously, we must pay attention to whether there is a heavy volume stagflation phenomenon.

In the short term, the early bull market can still be held.

We did not enter the capital and wait for the adjustment after the overrun.

The fundamentals of PTA are in good condition, and there is still room for further growth.

From the current PTA spot market performance, the PTA industry has a sustainable growth industry chain environment.

First of all, PTA has strong downstream demand.

90% of domestic PTA is used to produce polyester.

The PTA industry's boom depends on its demand for polyester.

At present, the profit of polyester industry is at a historical high level, and the profit per ton of polyester production is 1000 yuan / ton.

Under the stimulation of high profits, polyester manufacturers maintain a high starting state and have a strong rigid demand for PTA.

At the same time, polyester manufacturers are able to accept higher raw material prices because of the higher profits of polyester manufacturers.

From the perspective of industrial volume, because of the relatively concentrated production capacity of PTA, PTA manufacturers have higher bargaining power in price setting. It is very common that polyester profits have been squeezed by upstream manufacturers for a long time.

Therefore, in this regard, PTA has a huge demand for space with high demand.

At present, the domestic economic environment is relatively loose.

The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has reduced the nation's willingness to control inflation.

From the perspective of national economic policies, China maintains high economic growth goals.

In 2010, China's GDP forecast still maintained a 10% growth rate.

Under the circumstances of foreign economic depression, the Chinese government has promoted the growth of GDP through loose monetary policy.

From the data, we can see that the new loan in July is much higher than that in 2008 and 2009.

Loose monetary policy and higher economic growth will inevitably face the problem of inflation.

In July, CPI was 103.3, while natural disasters and disasters occurred frequently in July and August. The price rise of agricultural products, which is the main position of CPI, is obviously acceptable.

The government's willingness to regulate monetary policy after the announcement of high CPI data has also been significantly reduced.

Therefore, the continued easing of capital and inflation expectations are expected to continue to drive up PTA prices.

PTA itself has two hidden dangers, and bottom-up demand weakening may become a turning point in the market.

From the PTA fundamentals, it faces two major risks: first, PTA's own stock; two, the latter may be difficult to sustain polyester and textile demand.

Let's look at the PTA inventory first.

According to PTA and

However, the impact of social inventory on price movements is dynamic.

When the price trend is upward and traders are willing to hold the goods, the chamber of Commerce has more desire to build up stocks. At this point, the increase in social inventories has become an additional demand for PTA and drives up prices.

But once the price starts to fall, the accumulation of large quantities of stock will impact the market and accelerate the fall in prices.

PTA social inventory is also true.

At present, the mentality of traders is relatively optimistic. The reason is the rigid demand for PTA procurement analyzed by the downstream polyester.

Therefore, in the short term, the pressure of social inventory can only inhibit the rise of PTA price to a certain extent, but it can not directly lead to its price decline.

In terms of PTA industry chain, the turning point of PTA price in late stage will be caused by the weakening of polyester demand for PTA.

From the perspective of industry chain, the downstream industry chain of PTA is relatively simple.

From the analysis of the final product, it can be divided into filament, staple, polyester bottle and polyester diaphragm.

According to the analysis of output data, more than 85% of PTA downstream products flow to the textile and garment industry.

Therefore, the demand of PTA depends to a large extent on the degree of commencement of textile and garment factories.

According to the analysis of the existing data, we believe that in many data, the CCF released polyester index and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate can best reflect the terminal demand for polyester.

As of August 17th, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms began to decline, and the operating rate dropped from 70% in the previous period to 65%.

Polyester FDY, DTY, POY stock index began to gradually rise, from 3.8, 9.5, 3.8 days to 6.8, 12.3, 6.8 days.

I believe that if the polyester stock index back to the same period last year's inventory level, that is, the stock index reached FDY, POY inventory for 8 days, DYT inventory for 15 days, may lead to polyester enterprises to reduce the operating rate, thereby reducing the demand for PTA.

Therefore, after the PTA has skyrocketed, we need to pay attention to whether the downstream demand for PTA can be followed up.

Once the polyester stock index reached the same level last year and accompanied by a reduction in polyester operating rate, there may be a deterioration in supply and demand on the PTA fundamentals.

According to the current growth rate of inventory index, polyester can still maintain 1 to 2 weeks of Gao Kaigong, to increase the stock of polyester yarn.

Financial attributes to drive up PTA market, vigilance against market reversal, focus on {page_break}

From the point of view of market news, we believe that the rise in August 16th was dominated by the financial attributes of PTA. Until the close of the PTA spot, there was no news to confirm why PTA suddenly accelerated.

PTA has taken the lead in the commodity market, and both positions and pactions have hit a new high since listing.

Theoretically, the first increase in volume and increase in volume indicates that PTA can continue to rise in the latter stage, and the two is a huge divergence in the market.

Post market positions show that the more the period price rises, the shorter the main force is.

Based on the analysis of fundamentals and macroscopical analysis, we believe that PTA will still have rising kinetic energy in a certain period.

The current PTA fundamentals can still support higher PTA prices.

In the benign development of the upstream and downstream industries, it is difficult to determine where the top of PTA is.

But we can detect the turning signal of PTA market.

At present, the time to shift from the PTA market is still far away.

Therefore, standing at the current time point, we suggest that after the continuous rise, the early stage needs to pay attention to the phenomenon of volume and stagflation.