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Global Cotton Output Exceeds Consumption In 2010/11

2010/8/4 20:42:00 65

According to ICAC8 month forecast, the global cotton initial stock in 2010/11 reached 945 thousand tons, which was 110 thousand tons lower than forecast in July. Output was 25 million 240 thousand tons, increased by 260 thousand tons; consumption was 24 million 920 thousand tons, not adjusted; trade volume was 8 million 50 thousand tons, increased by 130 thousand tons; end of stock 9 million 770 thousand tons, increased by 140 thousand tons. Global production is expected to exceed consumption, and is expected to be higher than 320 thousand tons.

In the prediction of the new year,

ICAC

It is estimated that China's output will be 7 million 80 thousand tons, and its consumption expectation is 9 million 900 thousand tons. No adjustment has been made. The import volume is 2 million 850 thousand tons, an increase of 140 thousand tons from the previous month. The end of the year is expected to be 3 million 190 thousand tons and the inventory consumption will be 32%.

According to ICAC, cotton prices have been disappointing due to the unsatisfactory cotton prices. The global cotton output in 2009/10 has decreased for third consecutive years, reaching the lowest level in nearly six years, with only 21 million 864 thousand tons.

2010/11 cotton planting area will reach 32 million 900 thousand hectares, an increase of 10% over the same period last year.

The yield per unit area will be increased to 25 million 240 thousand tons, calculated by 766 kg / ha, an increase of 15% over the same period.

The growth rate reached 3 million 380 thousand tons, the largest increase since the year of 2004/05 compared with the previous year, and the growth rate reached 5 million 900 thousand tons in that year.

The largest increase in output in the new year is the United States.

Projected us

yield

It will reach 4 million 70 thousand tons, an increase of 52.4%.

This is the largest increase in US production in the past five years. While the US cotton area is expanding, the yield per unit area is also expected to increase.

India's output is expected to reach 5 million 530 thousand tons, an increase of 8% over the same period last year.

Pakistan is expected to reach 219 of its computers, an increase of about 8%.

Output in Brazil, Uzbek, Turkey, Australia and West Africa is also expected to increase.

Global consumption will increase 2% in the new year.

The rising cotton prices also have some adverse effects on cotton consumption.

Consumption growth in China and India accounts for about 80% of the world's total growth rate, accounting for 57% of the global total.

Global trade will grow by 4% over the same period last year.

This is mainly due to China's import volume and the export volume of US cotton.

India exports

The volume is estimated to be only 1 million 220 thousand tons, down from 1 million 390 thousand tons in 2009/10.

The end of the world inventory is expected to increase by 3%, the inventory consumption ratio is maintained at 39%, compared with the nearly five years average (2004/05-2008/09) 49% substantially reduced.

The CotlookA index, representing the international cotton price trend, is expected to reach 85 cents per pound in the new year.

In August 1, 2010, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) announced the forecast of global cotton production and marketing.

Compared with last month, the main adjustment is as follows.

Brazil's output was 1 million 480 thousand tons in 2010/11, increasing by 61 thousand tons.

China imported 2 million 854 thousand tons in 2010/11, increasing by 140 thousand tons.

In the year 2010/11, the United States produced 4 million 69 thousand tons, increased 258 thousand tons, exported 3 million 180 thousand tons, and increased 117 thousand tons.