Expert Analysis: China'S Macroeconomic Situation In The Two Quarter Of 2010
The analysis shows that the fundamentals of the national economy have further recovered.
In the coming period, the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies will be maintained and the flexibility and pertinence of macroeconomic regulation and control will be enhanced.
The two quarter of 2010, issued by the people's Bank of China
Macro economy
The situation analysis shows that in the two quarter of this year, GDP grew by 10.3% over the same period last year, CPI rose by 2.9% compared to the previous year, and RMB loans increased by 2 trillion and 30 billion yuan, and the national economy was moving towards the direction of macro regulation and control.
The analysis is still cautiously optimistic about the trend of China's economic development.
In the coming period, the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies will be maintained, the flexibility and pertinence of macroeconomic regulation and control will be enhanced, and the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations will be well handled.
The analysis pointed out that the European debt crisis has directly affected the pace of economic recovery in the euro area, and has brought some uncertainties to the global economic recovery, but it has little chance of overall impact on China's economy.
Economic growth has slowed down and the fundamentals of economic operation are still good.
From the seasonally adjusted link ratio analysis, the GDP growth rate has also slowed down.
People's Bank of China Entrepreneurs questionnaire survey shows that the two quarter entrepreneur confidence index ended last year's two quarter since the continuous rise of momentum, a slight drop in the high, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, reaching 83.4%.
The macroeconomic heat index continued to rise to 48.4%, but the growth rate dropped 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, of which the macroeconomic index of small businesses declined.
The macroeconomic heat forecast index has been lower than the macroeconomic heat index for 0.1 times for the first time since the end of 2008.
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Analysis
"Although the current economic growth shows some signs of slowing down, the fundamentals of China's economy are still good," he said.
The future economic slowdown is more likely to stabilize, but there is little chance of a two dip.
At present, the slowdown in economic growth is the reason why the early growth is too fast, and the reason is that there is a base. At the same time, it is also the result of macro policy control to curb the excessive price rise, restrain the expansion of local debt and manage inflation expectations.
The analysis points out that the upward pressure on prices has slowed down and the future price tail factor has been reduced.
We must remain vigilant against the possibility of rising prices.
First, the rise in food prices may rebound; the two is that the time lag effect of high growth in money and credit is not yet fully apparent; three, the increase in labour prices will also push up prices; four, inflation expectations are still high.
The prosperity index of product sales prices of 5000 industrial enterprises monitored by the people's Bank of China rose from 53.2% in the previous quarter to 54.2% in the two quarter, which has been rising for six consecutive quarters. The PBC survey shows that in the two quarter of 2010, the price expectation index in the future is 70.3%, up 4.7 percentage points over the previous quarter.
According to the price climate index calculated by the survey and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, the CPI composite index continued to rise and echoed the bottoming up of the first composite index in the first half of 2009.
At present, the CPI synthetic index has reached a slight downward trend after reaching its peak, but the index level is still at a high level, and there may still be a rise in the future.
Overall, according to preliminary estimates, the 2010 caudate factor will boost CPI by 1.2 percentage points, of which, in 6 and July, the CPI tail factor is 2.1%, reaching the highest level in the whole year.
In the second half of the year, the CPI tail factor will decrease month by month, and the new price increase factor will play a more important role.
The analysis also shows that
currency
Credit growth continued to fall steadily, and the credit structure was further improved.
As of the end of 6, M1 grew by 24.6% year-on-year, an increase of 7.8 percentage points lower than the end of last year, a 14.4 percentage point lower than the highest historical value, and M2 grew 18.5%, an increase of 9.2 percentage points from the end of last year, down 11.2 percentage points from the highest historical value.
M2 growth rate has dropped for 7 consecutive months, and M1 has basically dropped back to the same period last year.
The increase in M1 was mainly due to the increase in demand deposits in the same period last year and the higher base.
Monthly credit is gradually dropping.
In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 630 billion yuan, an increase of less than 2 trillion and 740 billion yuan over the same period last year.
Among them, RMB loans increased by 2 trillion and 600 billion yuan in the first quarter and increased by 2 trillion and 30 billion yuan in the two quarter.
At the end of 6, RMB loans increased by 18.2% over the same period last year, down 3.3 percentage points from last month, and have dropped for 8 consecutive months, down from the 20% average since 2006.
If the growth rate of RMB loans in 2010 will remain at 18.2% level in June, the new RMB loans will not exceed 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan in 2010.
The credit structure has been further improved.
First, the loan growth rate of SMEs is higher than that of large enterprises, and the problem of SME loans is alleviated to a certain extent.
In the first half of this year, new loans for SMEs accounted for 40.6% of all new loans, 4.6 and 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year and the end of last year.
Two, the growth rate of loans in the central and western regions was higher than that in the eastern region. The imbalance of credit resources between the economically backward areas and the developed areas continued to improve.
Three, the growth rate of real estate loans has slowed down, and the growth rate of home loans has declined for two consecutive months.
Overall, the overall demand for credit will gradually slow down in the future.
At the same time, the exchange rate formation mechanism is further improved and exchange rate flexibility is enhanced.
The people's Bank of China announced in June 19th that it should further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.
From the change of the middle price of the RMB exchange rate since June 21st, bilateral fluctuations have been significantly enhanced.
As of July 23rd, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated by 0.72% against the US dollar in 25 trading days.
At the same time, market expectations for RMB appreciation are significantly lower.
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