The Weather In July Is Changeable, Cotton Price Rises Hot And Shrinks Coldly

According to the statistics of the business agency, as of July 28, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 12255 yuan / ton, which was 339 yuan / ton higher than the price in early July, or 2.84% higher than that in the beginning of July, and 12.88% lower than that of last year. The market keeps an eye on the weather and the cotton market depends on the weather. The net import of cotton yarn increased by 8.78% year on year, and the export volume decreased significantly.

In July, the weather in Texas of the United States was widely concerned by the market. So far, the domestic cotton price rose by 2.84% in July, of course, there was no lack of hype. Dry weather in Texas will be put on the table from time to time, the reduction of new cotton production provokes the rising enthusiasm of the market. On the other hand, China US relations are in cold weather, and cotton uplink in ice period is hindered. US cotton export weekly report showed that in the first half of July, the number of US cotton export contracts was dismal, and Chinese contracts were mostly transferred to the next year. Texas drought just improved, and then the impact of Hurricane Hannah at the end of July gave speculators reasons to buy, and ice cotton took the opportunity to rebound. Apart from the time when the epidemic situation reaches its peak, it remains to be noted whether or not China's economic recovery measures will last.

Of course, the rise of lint spot is also related to the rotation of reserve cotton. The average transaction price of reserve cotton (3128b) increased significantly in the first week, with the help of Dongfeng, the spot price rose and narrowed the price gap. In the middle of July, the average transaction price dropped slightly, and we can see from the chart that the spot price has stagnated. Subsequently, due to the high spot price in late July, the price difference between the two narrowed, and the auction of Guochu cotton was hot again, and the spot price was callback.

High inventory, cotton up road resistance and long. According to the feedback of many import cotton traders, since mid and late July, due to the continuous consolidation of ice cotton futures main contracts at 62-65 cents / pound, the narrowing of the price difference between internal and external cotton, as well as the little adjustment of foreign cotton basis for bonded port and customs clearance, the foreign cotton at the port has been in a state of "more storage and less shipment", and the pressure on the port warehouse has increased. According to the inventory statistics and estimates of several international cotton merchants and large-scale import enterprises, by the end of July, bonded + non bonded cotton stocks in China's main ports will reach 580000-600000 tons again, and it is only a matter of time before the end of July.

Price changes of cotton yarn at home and abroad from July 20 to 24, 2020

(data source: national cotton market monitoring system, China Cotton network)

According to the statistics, China's Ring Yarn Import increased by 46.72 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.67 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.67 million tons of ring yarn, a year-on-year increase of 54.67 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.67 million tons of ring yarn.

Domestic cotton prices rose, the price gap between yarn and cotton continued to narrow, and the profits of cotton mills decreased again. At present, the cotton yarn market is mostly to hold the price shipment, the actual list details. Judging from the cotton yarn import and export data, the net import volume increased by 49.53% month on month in June. The price advantage of imported yarn was reflected, and the price of domestic yarn mills was adjusted accordingly. The weak downstream demand resulted in the dilemma of rising costs and falling prices of cotton mills, and the yarn price may be further under pressure.

Xinshe cotton business is good. New cotton production has not yet been finalized, but the mainstream market believes that the weather is not conducive to the production and quality of American cotton, and more worried about the market consumption, cotton prices are expected to fall slightly.