TPP Will China'S Economy Be Isolated At Step By Step?

This year's government work report said: from the domestic perspective, the long-term accumulation of contradictions and risks is emerging. Economic growth shift, structural adjustment pains, new and old energy conversion are intertwined, and economic downward pressure is increasing.

But difficulties and challenges are not terrible.

China's development has always been moving forward in the face of challenges.

How can the supply side reform really fall into place? "Green and development, how to have both fish and bear paws"?

CNR network Beijing March 12th (reporter Liu Yunlong) in October last year, the 12 countries participating in the p Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) negotiations reached a basic agreement on TPP at the ministerial meeting held in Atlanta, Georgia.

The multilateral trade agreement, led by the United States and Japan, Australia, Canada, Vietnam and Brunei, will cover 40% of the total global economy.

However, as an important economic entity in the Pacific region, China has not been invited to participate in the TPP negotiations.

Some analysts believe that excluding China from TPP is the intention of the United States to curb China's rise and isolate China's economy.

In 2015, China's GDP (GDP) grew by 6.9%, down 7%, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be set at 6.5% to 7% this year.

The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the external trade environment has also undergone major changes. The challenges facing China's economy are becoming increasingly severe.

Then, will China's economy be isolated as TPP step by step towards the camps?

"TPP has implications for China, but not entirely for China. We should look at this problem with a more open mind."

Zhao Mei, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that TPP is not a exclusive tariff agreement, but a higher standard trade rule. At present, China has not been invited to participate in the negotiations, mainly because there are still some problems in the trust in China's trade system.

Zhao Mei said: "TPP will set higher trade standards, which will bring some pressure and challenges to China, but we should participate in the international economic system with a more open mind."

Han Kang, chairman of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and President of the China Public Economic Research Association, expressed a similar view: "we should not treat TPP as a cold war mentality. The design of TPP is not mainly aimed at China. It is launched by the United States under the new global economic development conditions in order to obtain a larger international market, mainly from the perspective of economic interests."

Han Kang said that the United States has always wanted to improve the existing WTO trading mechanism, but there are many contradictions in WTO, so the United States began to start a new business and build TPP.

He said: "TPP is a higher and deeper level of international trade rules, and its entry threshold is higher. In terms of market liberalization and government management,

At present, there are still gaps, so it is very difficult for China to participate in the TPP negotiations in the short term.

When it comes to the fact that if TPP is to achieve an objective isolation of the Chinese economy in the Pacific region, Zhao Mei said: "from the 12 countries involved in TPP negotiations, many of them are Chinese trading partners. China is still their largest trading partner. Objectively speaking, it is not easy to isolate China."

In addition, Zhao Mei said that there is still a contradiction between the countries in the TPP negotiations on the rules of trade standards. Finally, the implementation of TPP needs the approval of the legislature of the negotiating countries. It is not known whether the "high standard" TPP can be truly realized.

"TPP has little impact on China in the short and medium term."

Hu Yishan, a former political secretary of Malaysia's prime minister and senior researcher of Nanyang Technology University in Singapore, believes that the volume of trade between China and the TPP negotiating countries, including the United States, is huge. Even if these countries finally signed TPP, they could not stop doing business with China and stop trading.

Hu Yishan also said that in addition to the traditional tariff reduction, TPP also made requests for intellectual property protection, inspection and quarantine, labor protection and health. When the level of trade required by these countries signed by TPP increased, and China could not achieve it, it would have a certain impact on China's economy in the long run.

"Recently,

Growth has slowed down, but such a "new normal" is not a bad thing.

Many years of rapid growth have led to a certain "water content" in China's economy, and the quality of Chinese products has not yet been completed.

Now that the growth rate is not so high, the Chinese economy needs to precipitate and think deeply about how to comprehensively improve product quality, improve service quality and improve the quality of its economy.

Hu Yishan said that in response to TPP, China's economy needs to increase its strength in the long run.

Zhao Mei believes that although

The final implementation will take time, but China needs to prepare ahead of schedule to meet the challenges that TPP may bring.

She said that China is actively participating in the negotiation of regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP), and is also participating in other multilateral trading systems. In the face of TPP, China has its own choice.

"Today's regional trade organizations are diversified, and the TPP led by the United States can not be a single" overlord ". In fact, China has entered into a free trade agreement with a number of TPP negotiating countries.

Han Kang said that China should maintain its attitude towards TPP's non rejection and positive cooperation on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has no way to go to the United States and has its own way to go.