China'S Economy Is In A Reasonable Operation Range And Needs More Policy Care.

As 2014 is about to end, market participants expect the December economic data to end the recent downward trend under the policy role, but economic growth in the four quarter may be lower than in the first three quarters.

Overall, the economic operation is in a reasonable range, basically achieving the goal of the beginning of the year, and the growth rate is slowing down more smoothly, especially in the stabilization of the employment market, to a certain extent, to alleviate the pressure brought by the downward trend of economic growth.

Looking ahead to 2015, economic growth is expected to further slow down and the pressure of policy underpinning is even greater.

Taking into account the high base level in the first half of 2014, we should not take lightly the challenges faced by the smooth start of the economic operation in 2015.

The central economic work conference pointed out that active fiscal policy should be strengthened, and monetary policy should pay more attention to tightness and moderation.

It can be seen that economic policy has certain prediction of the possible test.

In the present era, the following three problems should be considered in the smooth operation of the economy.

First, although the real estate sales show a recovery trend, the recovery of real estate investment is still constrained by the pressure of inventory pressure, especially the real estate expectations have changed, so the strength of real estate investment recovery is uncertain.

Two, although the growth rate of the world economy is likely to pick up slightly next year, the recovery of external demand will be affected by factors such as comparative advantage and RMB appreciation with the US dollar.

Three, although the central bank's further easing of the money supply is expected to be clearer, the Fed's rate hike is expected to lead to capital outflows and a constraint on interest rate cuts.

In order to reduce the uncertainty that the economic operation may face, and let the economic growth continue to move down a steady step, the policy should take the initiative from three aspects.

First, overweight capital construction investment, especially efforts to solve the financing bottleneck problem of infrastructure investment.

Since mid October, the NDRC has approved a cumulative investment amounting to trillions of projects, with the intention of supporting the bottom economy growing significantly.

The current problem is that the issue of capital investment and financing by banks alone has been overstretched. The leverage ratio of local governments is too high and the space for further leverage is limited. Therefore, the central finance should play a more important role.

We should speed up the promotion of the government and social capital cooperation mode (PPP), which involves a number of reforms, such as the reform of the price system and the relaxation of access threshold for public funds.

The two is to further reduce the cost of financing.

Recently, the adjustment of deposit size has increased the lending space of some banks to some extent.

Estimates indicate that the overall loan to deposit ratio is expected to decrease from 71% to around 65%, which is a great benefit to the real economy.

However, financing is still a difficult problem.

Increase base

Supply is undoubtedly an effective way to reduce the cost of financing, but the disadvantage of loose currency is the pressure of RMB depreciation and capital outflow.

Therefore, monetary policy should be relaxed and taken by surprise.

Efforts should be made to develop direct financing and speed up multiple levels.

Construction and implementation of stock issuance registration system reform.

The three is to take the expansion of the FTA as an opportunity to innovate the regulatory mode, stimulate innovation and promote the pformation and upgrading of enterprises, and drive a new round of major development in the relevant areas.

The experiment is not simply equivalent to the pilot test in the initial stage of reform and opening up. In addition to introducing foreign capital, we need to deepen reform while opening up.

For example, while relaxing supervision, we should further innovate the supervision mode, promote the market vitality through improving the effectiveness of government, not only relax the civil innovation, but also encourage innovation.

Different FTA can combine their own characteristics to differentiate development and combine with the implementation of other development strategies.