"Money Shortage" Is Also Like The Shadow Of The Central Bank.

< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > Central Bank < /a > the "reassurance" has little effect, the market is still "barren" no way to choose: in December 20th, the interbank ushered in a new round of interest rate rising, the pledge repurchase rose to 9.9% overnight, the opening interest rate was 3.63%, jumped 627 basis points, and the 14 day interest rate rushed to 12%.

And the A share market has been down for more than ten working days. In December 20th, it chose to plunge sharply and down all the way. The Shanghai Composite Index fell behind the half year line and fell through the 2100 point integer pass. The Shenzhen stock index broke the 8000 mark and hit a new low since August, especially after the bank's stock market staged a "black 3 minutes".

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< p > what a similar plot, the interest rate of funds is high, the stock market is full of mud and sand, and the "6. 19" style "money shortage" is coming back again. < /p >

"P >" the central bank sent the micro-blog high profile "centring" again on the evening of the 20 day: in view of the new changes in the money market at the end of this year, the central bank has injected more than 300 billion yuan of liquidity into the market through SLO for three consecutive days. At present, the excess payment of the banking system has exceeded 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan, which is a relatively high level in the same period of history.

This time, can we pacify the panic market? < /p >

< p > < strong > < < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/ > > 6 < 19 > /a > reproduction < < /strong > /p >

Traders who are still afraid of "6. 19" money shortage will not be able to sniff their faces even when facing the beautiful roses. What's more, P is now a "horror film".

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< p > the late closing of the big payment system, the rumors of the same default between banks, the overnight and 7 day repo rate peaks all exceeded 7%, and the January period was over 8%, and the stock market plummeted. Several landmark events of "6 19" money shortage are being reproduced one by one.

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< p > when the Dow Jones and the S & amp; P started to record new heights, why did A shares experience a few days of decline? In December 20th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.02%, at 2084.79 points, and fell 5.07% in the week, the biggest weekly decline since May 27, 2011. The Shenzhen stock index dropped 2.22%, reported 7966.72 points, and fell 5.49% during the week, the biggest weekly decline in February 22, 2013.

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< p > bank stocks float green all over the world. Late trading is a strange diving. The Construction Bank and CITIC Bank once hit the limit.

At the close, CITIC Bank plunged 8.67%, Construction Bank fell 6.16%, Ping An Bank and Bank of communications fell 4%.

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< p > rumors also spread like a "King's donkey ears" through the tree hole. The news of the breach has been rampant, but the banks involved in the rumor have clarified it.

According to reports, Ping An Bank, Hangzhou bank stakeholders said that there was no default.

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< p > but in December 20th the Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor) continued to rise across the board. This situation has lasted for 4 days.

In fact, there were signs in December 19th.

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< p > treasury bonds futures, the main TF1403 contract opened at a low level, with a slight pullback at the end of the month, closing at 91.374 points, down 0.10%.

"This is related to the" money shortage "panic triggered by the sharp rise in the cost of capital in the market.

Tao Qinying, a medium-term analyst in Shanghai, said.

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In P December 19th, the day's reverse repo rate rose sharply, reaching 17.2%, the highest in 2 months.

"Treasurys reverse repurchase is the margin broker."

A interbank trader told the China Times reporter that for the margin holders, the business is actually a short-term loan.

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< p > originally, the market expected that the central bank could conduct 14 days reverse repurchase operation in December 19th.

"14 days can just cross the year, the result is not, this time to stop and reverse a little panic."

A broker dealer said.

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< p > in fact, in the middle of 11 months, the interbank market funds began to show signs of nervousness.

In November 18th, the interbank overnight rate in Shanghai has reached 4.513%, and interest rates in 14 days and 1 months have accounted for more than 6%, 6.198% and 6.405% respectively.

Since then, the central bank has carried out 7 days and 14 days of reverse repurchase for two consecutive weeks, with a total operation volume of 119 billion yuan.

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< p > but the central bank has continued to implement the prudent policy of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > currency < /a >. It has not loosened nor tightened its monetary tone. The overall tone of the money has not changed. After the 6 reverse repurchase of 136 billion funds in November, the central bank in November 11th renewed the 10 billion year's 3 year maturity.

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From the end of P to the end of the year, the capital market tension continued to escalate.

In December 10th, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank again released 30 billion treasury cash deposit (ten phase) to commercial banks, and the bid interest rate was 6.3% higher. The Liquidity Dilemma in the medium and long term has not improved.

Until December 19th, the central bank had suspended the reverse repurchase for the fifth time in a row, and the Federal Reserve reduced the size of QE boots and landed the market interest rate soaring.

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"P", "borrow money and borrow money, although everyone is busy with the same size, but this time there is no last panic, the central bank's attitude is more clear, the key time will give help, but more can only rely on themselves."

A listed commercial bank capital department member described the state of the day.

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The central bank obviously can not afford to take the risk of "money shortage" again. Subsequently, it announced through official micro-blog that the short-term liquidity adjustment tool (SLO) has been used to regulate liquidity in the market. P

"SLO is within seven days, and the term is short and flexible. Obviously, the central bank does not want the capital to be too loose, but it does not want to be too nervous."

The bankers said.

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< p > < strong > what is the difference this time? < /strong > < /p >

< p > why is the central bank's "reassurance" as "central Mom" unable to stabilize the restless market? Is it over reaction, looting or relying on "love" and letting go? < /p >

< p > the data released by the central bank in December 11th showed that in the end of 11, the balance of broad money M2 was 107 trillion and 930 billion yuan, up 14.2% from the same period last year, and the scale of social financing in November reached 16 trillion and 60 billion yuan, up 1 trillion and 920 billion yuan over the same period.

Thus, "money shortage" may not be "barren".

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< p > according to Goldman Sachs's calculations, foreign exchange holdings from non-financial institutions to the banking system in November were strong enough to reach US $65 billion.

As in October, foreign exchange inflows seemed to be mainly "hot money", because the trade surplus in November was only about 34 billion dollars.

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The main reason for this divergence is that the financial institutions are developing the business of the same industry and the resulting mismatch and arbitrage resulting in the tension of the liquidity of the financial institutions. P

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< p > the term mismatch problem was revealed as early as June this year, despite the experience of a series of iron fist remediation by the central bank, it was not quickly brought to justice.

"Banks are good at borrowing short loans."

A state-owned big bank credit officer admitted.

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< p > however, after the painful experience of June, commercial banks did not really adjust their business structure. Instead, they did the "last bus" of Datong business before issuing official document No. 9 on regulating interbank business.

This is known as the "last Craziness" by the industry.

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< p > "expect the CBRC" No. 9 "to come out in the circle. Before the policy has yet to fall, it will rush down the business of the same industry.

A joint-stock bank in Beijing told the China Times reporter, "almost two days.

Not only are we doing it, but many other banks are following suit.

Even if the headquarters level is halted, it is not following, and branches continue to be acquiesced.

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< p > "this leads to the mismatch of assets and liabilities in the late 12 months when funds return to the table.

At this point, banks will be willing to compete for loans and raise interest rates.

These people told reporters that this is also leading to the interbank market in December bank liquidity again tense one of the culprits.

"At present, both big banks and joint-stock banks tend to borrow money, which is a defensive battle at the end of the year."

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< p > according to convention, Thursday (December 19th) is a time point for the central bank's open market operation. On that day, the central bank usually carries on 7 days or 14 days of reverse repurchase operations to inject funds into the market.

"But this operation has been suspended since the central bank conducted a 18 billion yuan 7 day reverse repurchase in December 3rd."

According to the analysis of the joint-stock banks, 40 billion yuan of treasury cash is due to expire on Thursday, which exacerbates the short-term liquidity pressure of the market.

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"P > but one reality is that after the" money shortage "in June, commercial banks have not really adjusted their business structure, but have increased their sensitivity to the central bank's" water release ".

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< p > the central bank also cautiously hinted at micro-blog in 20 days: "the main commercial banks rationally adjust the structure of assets and liabilities and improve the scientificity and foresight of liquidity management."

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< p >, however, compared with the "shortage of money" in June, the current financial strain is very small.

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< p > December, did "money shortage" replicate the "shortage of money" in June? During the interview with the reporter of the China times, many interbank market participants' view is: 6 the monthly interest rate surge has become a milestone. In the case of regulators including the central bank, who have prepared for the "money shortage" or the regulatory tools, the probability of capital interest rate soaring again is small.

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< p > and "hot money" can not be withdrawn quickly.

Because domestic and foreign high interest arbitrage will continue for a long time.

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< p > CITIC's view is that China's real economy has a relatively strong demand for financing, but this contradiction with the central bank's long and tight monetary policy, so the domestic high interest rate environment will continue.

As for the Fed, the exit of QE is a relatively slow process and is not achieved overnight. It is estimated that zero interest rate will also be postponed to 2016.

In this way, the global loose monetary structure in 2014 has not changed significantly. The high interest margin at home and abroad will continue to attract hot money inflows.

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< p > Li Youhuan, director of the comprehensive research and development center of the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, also said that the intensity of QE's withdrawal is not very great. "Under the circumstance of little intensity, hot money is still waiting and watching, of course, some of them will follow the footsteps of the United States."

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"P > Goldman Sachs believes that strong foreign exchange inflows may reflect the external market, because China's overall reform prospects and central bank officials, including President Zhou Xiaochuan and vice president of Yi Gang, are excited about the repeated commitment of exchange rate marketization.

These attractions have not changed.

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< p > < strong > is the central bank still "centering"? < /strong > < /p >

< p > a further step is to say that even if the withdrawal of QE has led to the massive outflow of hot money, the Central Bank of China has 3 trillion and 660 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves and the task of promoting RMB internationalization. When the exchange rate fluctuates greatly, the central bank has enough power and strength to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, and the current deposit rate is still at a historical high.

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< p >, so QE withdraws. The impact of liquidity is still under the control of the central bank. The future liquidity is mainly based on the central bank.

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Less than P. Moreover, after experiencing the "shortage of money" in June, the central bank's regulation of market liquidity is changing and growing.

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< p > "generally speaking, June is also the most stressful month in the capital market."

The reason is that most of the basic money faces recovery from the end of May to the beginning of July.

The most important ones include the centralized payment of enterprise income tax (the basic money is returned to the central bank system through the form of fiscal deposits), the deposit reserve fund and the bank bonus.

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< p > can this time alleviate the hidden danger of "money shortage"? "The key lies in the actual strength of the central bank."

The traders said frankly, but the central bank's announcement of micro-blog's operation through SLO is intended to show the pparency of the operation of the central bank to the outside world. It also indicates that the central bank will provide a reference to the market, while letting the outside understand the operation of the central bank and form expectations.

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< p > then, does the central bank's insisting on "lock long and short operation" change? In the letter issued by the central bank on liquidity management of commercial banks in June 17th, the central bank emphasized that "liquidity is at a reasonable level" and "activate the stock".

"A series of central bank practices show that the central bank must break the existing and reconstruct a new system of discourse."

A bank official told our reporter.

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< p > the question now is whether the central bank's system can stick to its original intention in the context of rising capital costs and declining markets.

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< p > at the beginning of this year, the central bank launched two innovative tools: SLO and SLF.

In contrast, SLO is mainly short term repurchase within 7 days. The main function of SLF is to meet the large liquidity demand of financial institutions for a longer period of time, with a period of 1 to 3 months.

In December 8th, the central bank chose to launch NCD at the end of the year. It was also interpreted by the industry as "another card" to prevent market capital from getting tense.

What's more, the central bank can also start lowering the deposit reserve to deal with the trend of global liquidity returning to the US.

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